Last Week In Review: ETF News And Blog Posts

Ulli ETF News Contact

In case you missed it, here’s a summary of the ETF topics that I posted to my blog during the week ending on 7/15/2011.

Continued global uncertainty, along with questionable economic data, made this past week a losing one for equity ETFs. On the positive side, the metals rallied strongly and helped elevate our core holding PRPFX.

My published Cutline tables and Model ETF Portfolios can give you an assist by indentifying weakness and strength in various market segments so that you can make better investment decisions by avoiding exposure in those areas that are trending down.

This week, we covered the following:

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How should ETFs be used by Retirees and Conservative Investors?

Ulli ETF News Contact

That’s an interesting question indeed, and Seeking Alpha tried to cover some ‘dos’ and ‘don’ts’ via “An ETF Primer for Retirees and Conservative Investors.”

Here are some highlights, but I suggest you read the entire article if that topic is of interest to you:

Over the past few years, exchange-traded funds have made a big impact on the 80-year-old mutual fund industry. But do these new products belong in conservative portfolios?

Some regulators and investors have warned about hidden risks in ETFs and the dangers of exotic investment options. While many of their concerns are valid, we think tarring the whole industry is throwing the baby out with the bath water. Not all ETFs have the same operational and investment risks. In fact, many ETFs are perfectly suitable for a retiree’s portfolio. They’re easy to spot, once you know what traits to look for: simplicity, low costs, and diversification. Here we provide quick tips on how to navigate through the muddied waters.

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ETF Leaders And Laggards – For The Week Ending 7/15/2011

Ulli ETF Leaders & Laggards Contact

Here is a quick ETF review of the past week’s winners and losers from my High Volume ETF Master list:

Equities got slapped around this past week with the S&P 500 giving back 2.1%. Shining brightly were gold related ETFs along with Natural Gas. As you can see, gold had a super week by adding +3.29% on top of the previous week’s advances.

While we own some GLD, we primarily participated indirectly in this rally via our exposure to PRPFX.

On the losing side of the equation was Spain, which go hit hard for the second week in a row. Same goes for the European Union, which is still stuck deep in debt issues that are far from being over, despite much jawboning to the contrary.

Not recognizable from the above tables is the fact that the international arena has sunk back into bear market territory, as I posted yesterday. To me, that means uncertainty will be our close companion again next week, so be sure to monitor your trailing sell stops closely.

Disclosure: Holdings in GLD

07-15-2011

Ulli Newsletter Archives Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2011/07/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-updated-through-7142011/

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Market Commentary

Friday, July 15, 2011

AGAINST THE WIND

The major market ETFs simply faced too many headwinds and, as a result, the S&P 500 lost 2.1% for the week after two weeks of gains.

No matter where you looked, the news was predominantly negative as Europe’s worsening debt crisis set a sour mood last Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday, confusion reigned as Fed chief Bernanke, the big flip flopper, left the markets guessing as to future stimulus.

The Disciplined Investor put it best:

After Bernanke’s latest testimony, we may want to consider him the latest King of Spin for this economy.  Bernanke has successfully been able to destroy the US Dollar all while keeping a “Strong Dollar Policy”. He has also flip flopped so much on key subjects such as monetary policy that we are not so sure what he has planned next. He has kept Wall Street on their toes that is for sure. Let’s look at his latest testimony to see what we are talking about:

Fed’s Bernanke says given uncertainties about recovery and inflation, Fed remains prepared to adjust stance of policy if appropriate.

then he says… Possibility remains that weakness more persistent than expected, deflation risks may return implying need for more monetary policy support

but then he states…Economy could evolve in a way that would warrant move to less accommodative policy.

So, which is it, accommodative or less accommodative?

Obviously, if the market is confused, it won’t go anywhere, which is exactly what happened on Thursday and Friday. More of a sell off was averted, despite a dismal consumer sentiment report, thanks in part due to Google’s blowout earnings.

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) followed the ups and downs, but a least, for the time being, we got clarification in the international arena, as that index slipped back into bear market territory. Here are the numbers after today’s close:

Domestic TTI: +3.82% (last week +4.54%)
International TTI: -1.28% (last week +1.26%)

While the focus will be on earnings next week, the continued battle about the U.S. debt ceiling will very likely be part of the front page news stories. Throw in some unforeseen events from the European debt circus, and you’ll have a recipe for more uncertainty, which is bound to offer additional support for gold.

Should an agreement be reached in regards to the debt ceiling, look for a relief rally. However, it remains to be seen whether that will simply be a one-day wonder or, if it will morph into more than that. My guess at this time is that any rally will be of limited duration.

Have a great week.

Ulli…

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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

A note from reader Richard:

Q: Ulli: I was fooling around on the Schwab website, and I found an option to “reinvest dividends” (yes/no), on my account holding detail page. They are all marked “no”. I don’t even know if ETF’s pay dividends; I never held one long enough. Anyway is “no” what you want?

A: Richard: Yes, for all of my clients, I have the “no re-investment” of dividends selected. Whenever you re-invest within a taxable account, this tiny amount becomes a new cost basis, which has to be accounted for at year end. That can be an accounting nightmare, even though Schwab provides the cost basis calculations.

 

My preference is to let the small amounts accumulate and, if market conditions are favorable, invest in a select ETF via a larger amount.

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WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/

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Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

https://theetfbully.com/newsletter-archives/

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker For Friday, July 15, 2011

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

————————————————————-

THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2011/07/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-updated-through-7142011/

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Market Commentary

Friday, July 15, 2011

AGAINST THE WIND

The major market ETFs simply faced too many headwinds and, as a result, the S&P 500 lost 2.1% for the week after two weeks of gains.

No matter where you looked, the news was predominantly negative as Europe’s worsening debt crisis set a sour mood last Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday, confusion reigned as Fed chief Bernanke, the big flip flopper, left the markets guessing as to future stimulus.

The Disciplined Investor put it best:

After Bernanke’s latest testimony, we may want to consider him the latest King of Spin for this economy.  Bernanke has successfully been able to destroy the US Dollar all while keeping a “Strong Dollar Policy”. He has also flip flopped so much on key subjects such as monetary policy that we are not so sure what he has planned next. He has kept Wall Street on their toes that is for sure. Let’s look at his latest testimony to see what we are talking about:

Read More

Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker – Updated Through 7/14/2011

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, July 14, 2011

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY— since 6/3/2009

As announced via a blog post, on 6/2/2009, the TTI triggered a buy signal with an effective date of 6/3/2009. We will use the 7% trailing stop loss of our positions as an exit point or the crossing of the trend line to the downside, whichever occurs first.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has broken above its long term trend line (red) by +3.43%.

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