ETF Tracker Newsletter For March 6, 2026

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ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

WEAK JOBS REPORT + OIL SPIKE – STOCKS SLIDE, MAG 7 HOLDS FIRM

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks opened lower and stayed soft all day, adding to their weekly losses as oil prices spiked higher and traders digested a surprisingly weak February jobs report.

Nonfarm payrolls dropped by -92,000 (a big miss vs. the expected +50,000 gain), with the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.4% from 4.3%. Ouch! That soft labor data, combined with persistent inflation concerns, kept the risk-off mood alive.

West Texas Intermediate crude broke above $89 a barrel, and Brent traded over $91 as worries grew about potential supply disruptions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict.

Higher energy costs are putting more pressure on consumer spending and complicating the Fed’s rate decisions—soft jobs + sticky inflation isn’t the Goldilocks scenario anyone wants.

The Mag 7 actually outperformed the rest of the S&P 493 this week, acting almost like a safe-haven flow alongside the dollar (which held firm).

Bond yields spiked but backed off their highs today. Precious metals had a choppy week overall—treading water after Monday/Tuesday’s sell-off—but gold found support around $5,000 and swung sideways.

Silver lagged, and Bitcoin ended the week basically unchanged after hitting highs midweek.

Traders are now wondering if oil heads toward $100 next week and what kind of reckoning stocks might face if history repeats.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 03/05/2026

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, March 5, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +6.09% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Early Weakness Turns Ugly – Late Bounce Trims Losses

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks resumed their slide after yesterday’s brief breather, as fresh worries about the Iran conflict flared up again and sent oil prices surging.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures topped $80 a barrel in the afternoon—the highest since July 2024—after Iran claimed it hit an oil tanker with a missile.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi added fuel by saying Iran isn’t asking for a ceasefire and sees no reason to negotiate with the U.S. and Israel.

That energy spike triggered big swings all day. The Dow plunged 1,000 points right around the time oil hit $80, dropping as much as 1,100 points (about 2.4%) at its low.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also traded near session bottoms after briefly popping above flat early on. The selling pushed the S&P below its critical 100-day moving average (6,836)—a key support level that had held since November’s “Liberation Day” breakout.

Bond yields rose for the fourth straight session, adding to the pressure, while precious metals and Bitcoin pulled back. Still, most assets bounced off their worst levels late in the day, trimming the damage a bit.

I am pondering if the geopolitical risks might keep the bears in charge a bit longer until tomorrow’s jobs report or some clearer news breaks the stalemate?

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From Yesterday’s Red To Today’s Bounce – Relief Rally Underway

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The major indexes shook off yesterday’s volatility and opened strong, building on a broad rebound as traders focused on the latest U.S.-Israel-Iran developments while letting some of the growth-scare fears from last week fade into the background.

Treasury Secretary Bessent said today the U.S. is gearing up for “a series of announcements” to keep oil flowing smoothly through the Persian Gulf.

This follows President Trump’s Tuesday statement that the U.S. will provide risk insurance (or even escorts) for tankers through the Strait of Hormuz to get trade moving again.

Bessent also confirmed the 15% global tariff Trump announced late last month will roll out this week, though he added he expects U.S. tariff rates to “within five months” return to pre-Supreme Court levels (after the court struck down much of the original policy).

On the ground, Israel launched another round of attacks on Tehran, with the defense minister vowing to “crush” the regime’s capabilities. It’s headline-watching season right now—competing stories are shifting sentiment hour by hour.

The upbeat mood got a boost from solid macro data: ADP showed private payrolls added more jobs than expected in February, and the nonmanufacturing sector (services) grew stronger than forecasted last month with easing inflation pressures.

Gold and silver advanced modestly, but Bitcoin stole the show—roaring up to $74K (up over 7% at one point) before settling a bit lower.

ZeroHedge nailed it: the real question is what fresh news from the firehose could surprise the market and restart the scare cycle from scratch?

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Iran Tensions Spike Oil – Stocks Tank Early, Then Trim Losses

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

U.S. stocks got slammed right out of the gate, wiping out Monday’s comeback as oil prices spiked again and traders started fretting that the U.S.-Iran conflict could drag on longer than expected.

The Dow was down about 1,200 points (around 2.5%) at one point, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each slipped roughly 2.2%.

Brent crude topped $84 a barrel (up 8% today after Monday’s 6% jump), fueled by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard commander announcing the Strait of Hormuz—the world’s most critical oil transit route—is now closed, with threats to torch any ships trying to pass.

Other weekend developments added fuel to the fire: U.S. embassy in Riyadh hit by drones, Tehran-backed Hezbollah launching missiles and drones at Tel Aviv, and growing worries about how long Gulf states like the UAE can hold off Iran’s barrage with air defenses.

The energy surge pushed Treasury yields higher on fears of inflation flaring back up—just as investors had been counting on more Fed rate cuts.

Tech stocks, which had powered Monday’s intraday bounce, got hit again—Nvidia and Broadcom each down around 2%. There were few places to hide; gold, silver, and crypto all sold off after Monday’s gains.

By the close, early losses had been trimmed quite a bit after President Trump floated the idea of helping oil tankers get insurance or escorts through the Strait of Hormuz if needed.

That eased some supply panic, pulling oil off its highs for now. The dollar spiked, gold gagged down to $5,000 before bouncing back, and Bitcoin rode its usual roller coaster but ended roughly unchanged since Friday.

With traders stressed and markets feeling fragile, all eyes are now on Friday’s jobs report—it could swing direction big time.

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Gold +2%, Vix Surges – Safe-Havens Shine Amid Conflict Fears

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks tanked early after the weekend news of U.S. and Israel strikes on Iran, spiking oil prices and adding Middle East instability to the growing list of investor worries.

The major averages hit session lows hard—the Dow was down about 600 points at one point—but rallied back thanks to gains in tech like Nvidia and Microsoft.

Gold futures surged almost 2% as a safe-haven play, and the VIX (Wall Street’s fear gauge) jumped to its highest levels of 2026 so far.

President Trump told CNBC’s Joe Kernen that U.S. operations in Iran are “ahead of schedule,” but traders are still jittery about a prolonged conflict. U.S. crude climbed almost 8% on fears of supply disruptions—Iran’s the fourth-largest OPEC producer, after all.

By the close, the indexes had bounced impressively: the Dow and S&P 500 basically broke even, while the Nasdaq eked out a modest green finish.

A big short squeeze off the lows helped small caps score a winning session, and the Mag 7 even outperformed the rest of the S&P 493 for a change.

Bond yields surged (10-year back above 4%), the dollar hit 1-month highs, Bitcoin tested $70k but closed below it, gold soared to $5,350, and silver bounced early but ended flat.

Right now, there are more questions than answers, but a stabilizing energy picture could ripple positively, while fears of longer-term disruption might do the opposite.

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