AI Doubts And Inflation Fears Leave Markets Searching For Direction

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Today felt a little like a reality check for the AI trade. Traders grew increasingly nervous about whether some companies are spending too aggressively on artificial intelligence, while another round of inflation data reminded everyone that the Fed may not be off the hook just yet.

The Dow came out strong early, but technology stocks struggled to find their footing as concerns around AI spending weighed on sentiment.

The selling was led by CoreWeave, while questions surfaced about whether the revenue growth across parts of the AI ecosystem is keeping pace with the lofty expectations already priced into many chip and infrastructure names.

Meanwhile, September’s inflation data continued to run hotter than investors would like, reinforcing the idea that interest rates could stay higher for longer.

Oddly enough, markets couldn’t seem to agree on the message. Bond yields slipped, oil prices surged, the dollar weakened, gold rallied, and Bitcoin bounced.

When stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies are all singing different songs, it’s no surprise traders are having trouble finding the rhythm.

The good news? The S&P 500 and Nasdaq managed to claw their way back to roughly unchanged by the close.

The bigger question now is whether the market can keep moving higher if inflation stays sticky and AI leadership starts losing a little of its shine.

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Inflation Reheats, Markets Cool Off

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Markets came into the day hoping inflation would keep cooling, but September’s CPI report had other ideas.

A slightly hotter-than-expected reading sent bond yields higher, strengthened the dollar, and put immediate pressure on stocks as investors once again questioned how long interest rates may stay elevated.

What stood out wasn’t just the inflation data. Several major banks delivered solid earnings, yet their stocks still finished lower, suggesting investors are raising the bar heading into earnings season.

Add in crude oil pushing back above $96, a stronger dollar weighing on gold and crypto, and renewed concerns around AI-related credit risk (CRWV), and you had a recipe for broad-based selling across nearly every asset class.

The Magnificent Seven had been carrying the market lately, but even they couldn’t escape gravity today.

The question now is whether tomorrow’s PPI report can offer some relief, or if inflation and rates will continue to call the tune.

Was today just a bump in the road, or a reminder that the inflation fight may not be over yet?

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Markets Juggle Bank Earnings, Chip Fears, And Tomorrow’s CPI

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Stocks stumbled out of the gate today as traders sorted through the first wave of big-bank earnings and a sharp overnight selloff in South Korea that weighed on memory and semiconductor names.

The banks themselves didn’t disappoint so much as they ran into a buzzsaw of high expectations.

JPMorgan initially traded lower after missing forecasts but bounced back after raising its 2026 net interest income outlook.

Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs delivered mixed reactions as investors focused less on what was reported and more on what comes next. With analysts looking for nearly 30% year-over-year earnings growth from the S&P 500, the hurdle-rate this season remains awfully high.

Elsewhere, memory stocks felt pressure after South Korea’s Kospi dropped 5.5% amid valuation concerns and rising competition from China.

Oil moved higher on renewed geopolitical tensions, while stronger-than-expected home sales and mixed Fed commentary nudged rate-hike odds higher ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report.

Bonds, gold, and the dollar all churned around, while Bitcoinv managed to survive another roller-coaster ride with a modest gain.

One strategist noted that today’s semiconductor landscape bears an uncomfortable resemblance to the late stages of the dot-com boom.

Is that a warning sign, or just another reminder that every market cycle eventually finds a way to rhyme?

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Record-Low Volume: Calm Before The Earnings Storm?

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The market started the week with a split personality.

The Dow managed to stay in positive territory, helped by a strong move in Salesforce after a favorable analyst upgrade, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq drifted lower as investors looked ahead to a packed week of earnings reports and inflation data.

Tech was a mixed bag. Micron weighed on the Nasdaq after concerns emerged about growing competition from China’s CXMT, but the broader AI story remains intact.

In fact, expectations for another strong earnings season continue to underpin investor optimism. As always, though, what executives say about demand, costs, and the road ahead may matter more than the numbers they report.

Geopolitics also kept traders on their toes. Oil climbed roughly 2% as fresh tensions in the Middle East overshadowed talk of a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire. It seems every diplomatic headline now comes with a sequel before the credits even roll.

Under the surface, market breadth actually improved, the Magnificent Seven outperformed the other 493 members of the S&P 500, and the dollar climbed to its highest level since May 2025.

Gold felt the pressure from the stronger dollar, while Bitcoin’s weekend rally fizzled just enough to end little changed from Friday.

Perhaps the most interesting development was the lack of participation. Trading volume was exceptionally light, reaching levels rarely seen outside holiday periods.

Is this simply traders catching their breath ahead of earnings season, or an early sign of investor fatigue?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 10/09/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (151 vs. 154 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For October 9, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

MARKETS RECOVER, BUT THE CREDIBILITY TEST ISN’T OVER

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Stocks bounced back this morning, with technology shares leading the way after yesterday’s AI-fueled reality check.

Traders spent much of the day digesting OpenAI’s lower-than-expected revenue trajectory, a reminder that even in the AI boom, expectations can run faster than fundamentals.

The bigger story, though, remains the tug-of-war between growth optimism and higher interest rates.

Ten-year Treasury yields are hovering near levels not seen since 2002, while a steady stream of geopolitical headlines keeps energy markets on edge.

Gold managed a rebound, copper outperformed its metal peers, and Bitcoin clawed its way back toward $83,000 despite ETF outflows.

For me, the takeaway is that markets are becoming increasingly sensitive to credibility, whether it’s AI revenue projections, energy supply stability, or fiscal discipline.

With new lows continuing to outnumber new highs beneath the surface, are investors finally becoming a little more selective about the stories they’re willing to believe?

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