Wall Street Hits The Pause Button Ahead Of A Critical Inflation Week

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Today’s market action was a reminder that headlines still matter. The S&P 500 lost ground as optimism about a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faded, pushing oil prices higher and putting pressure on stocks, especially some of the market’s biggest technology names.

Communication services and technology led the retreat, with Alphabet, AppLovin, Apple, and even Nvidia struggling to find traction.

Interestingly, Nvidia couldn’t hold onto its gains despite announcing a massive AI infrastructure initiative, suggesting investors may be more focused on near-term risks than long-term opportunities.

Meanwhile, bonds seemed less concerned, with yields slipping, while the dollar was little changed. Gold and Bitcoin both eased back as traders took a cautious stance ahead of this week’s inflation reports.

At this point, the market feels like it’s caught between two worries: higher oil prices on one side and a slowing economy on the other.

With CPI tomorrow and PPI on Thursday, traders are about to find out whether inflation is cooling enough to comfort the Fed, or whether the latest energy spike throws another wrench into the outlook.

So, the question is: will the inflation data give stocks a reason to rally, or simply provide the market with a fresh set of worries?

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Silver Shines While Markets Search For Their Next Catalyst

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Markets spent most of the day waiting for clarity on the Iran situation and, unfortunately, clarity never showed up for work.

Growing doubts about a near-term U.S.-Iran breakthrough kept investors cautious, while higher oil prices took center stage. With WTI crude jumping about 5% to $82, bond yields moved higher and risk appetite cooled.

The major indexes drifted lower as the recent short-covering rally appeared to run out of fuel.

Meanwhile, precious metals continued to attract attention. Gold pushed back above $4,350 despite a stronger dollar, while silver stole the spotlight with a gain of more than 3%.

Bitcoin was the outlier, slipping modestly below $64,000.

In the end, it felt like one of those market days where everyone was waiting for the next headline, and nobody wanted to make the first big move.

Until a new catalyst emerges, we may be stuck in a holding pattern.

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 08/07/2026

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Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (217 vs. 229 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For August 7, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

STOCKS CLIMB, GOLD SHINES, AND THE FED GETS BREATHING ROOM

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

This morning, the market pulled off one of its favorite tricks: bad economic news turned into good market news.

July’s jobs report was much weaker than expected, with payrolls actually shrinking and prior months revised sharply lower.

While that’s not exactly a cause for celebration on Main Street, Wall Street saw it as a sign the Fed can stay on the sidelines rather than reach for another rate hike.

That shift in expectations sent bond yields lower and helped push stocks higher, with software shares leading the charge.

Precious metals stole the show for the week, though. Gold posted its strongest weekly gain in seven months, silver sprinted ahead with a 10% jump, and even Bitcoin joined the risk-on mood by climbing back above $65,000.

The big debate now is what comes next: does sticky inflation keep yields elevated, or does a cooling economy ultimately pull them lower?

That’s the tug-of-war bond investors are wrestling with today. So, if you had to pick a side right now, would you bet on inflation or slowing growth?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 08/06/2026

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, August 6, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +9.60% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Rally Loses Momentum While Middle East Headlines Drive Attention

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The market spent most of the day treading water as investors balanced another round of earnings reports against the ever-changing headlines out of the Middle East.

While discussions around reopening the Strait of Hormuz helped keep hopes alive, the details still matter, and the market seems to be growing a bit skeptical of promises before seeing signatures.

By the closing bell, the major indexes finished modestly lower as the recent short-squeeze rally continued to lose steam.

The Mag 7 once again carried more than its share of the load, while rising bond yields gave the dollar a lift.

In the commodities space, oil moved higher on the Strait developments, gold briefly pushed above $4,300 before ending flat, and silver remained the standout performer among the metals.

Bitcoin also knocked on the door of $65,000 several times but, like an eager salesman, couldn’t quite get anyone to answer.

The bigger question remains whether investors can continue looking past geopolitical risks, or if reality eventually catches up with the market. Are traders showing resilience, or simply complacency?

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