Higher Oil, Hawkish Powell, And A Market Going Nowhere

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The S&P 500 spent most of the session hovering near unchanged, while oil prices kept pushing higher amid an ongoing U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. With energy prices climbing, traders stayed cautious heading into a packed stretch of catalysts.

Markets were also focused on what could be Jerome Powell’s final policy meeting as Federal Reserve chair, along with earnings from four members of the “Magnificent Seven.”

Expectations were low for any rate changes, but high for guidance—especially given how much uncertainty is tied to inflation and geopolitics right now.

Oil continued its climb after The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump has asked aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade of Iran.

West Texas Intermediate crude jumped another 4%, pushing back above $104 per barrel. The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil flows, remains a major concern and keeps upward pressure on energy prices.

As expected, the Fed held rates steady. However, Powell struck a hawkish tone in his press conference, warning that “the effects of oil‑related inflation are still in front of us.” Mixed macro data didn’t help ease concerns, leaving markets stuck in neutral.

By the close, oil surged, bond yields moved higher, and the dollar strengthened.

Gold and Bitcoin both headed lower, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished essentially flat—another day of plenty of motion beneath the surface, but little progress overall.

Elevated energy prices seem likely to stick around longer than hoped. That said, with the UAE exiting OPEC, could shifting supply dynamics eventually open the door for a reversal in oil prices—or are higher energy costs here to stay?

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When Everything Feels Out Of Sync

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks stumbled early, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pulling back as a mix of tech‑specific concerns and higher oil prices weighed on sentiment.

A report highlighting softer‑than‑expected momentum at OpenAI spooked investors, while rising crude kept inflation worries simmering.

According to a Wall Street Journal report, OpenAI has recently fallen short of its own targets for revenue and new‑user growth.

The report also noted that CFO Sarah Friar raised concerns internally about whether the company could meet future computing contract obligations if top‑line growth doesn’t accelerate. That was enough to hit the tech complex hard.

Chip stocks and AI‑related names led the retreat. Nvidia dropped more than 3%, Broadcom slid over 4%, and AMD, Intel, and Oracle all fell roughly 4% as well.

The timing couldn’t be worse, with earnings season hitting full stride. Five of the Magnificent Seven are set to report this week, including Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft on Wednesday, followed by Apple on Thursday.

Today’s weakness followed a strong Monday, when both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs.

Those gains already had cracks forming as peace talks between the U.S. and Iran appeared to stall.

Still, there was at least a flicker of optimism after the White House confirmed discussions around Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the war ends and the U.S. lifts its blockade.

Even so, it was a rough session across the board. Every sector except oil finished lower, with red dominating the tape. Metals, Bitcoin, and even traditionally defensive value ETFs took a hit.

It’s a strange setup when stocks hover near record highs while bonds and oil are clearly signaling stress.

Bond yields pushed higher as rate‑cut expectations faded, with markets now pricing just a one‑in‑six chance of a single 25‑basis‑point cut.

The dollar chopped around but ended slightly higher. Gold took a beating, and Bitcoin followed suit, sliding toward $76,000 after topping nearly $89,000 just a day earlier.

With earnings, geopolitics, and rates all pulling in different directions, the big question is: which signal will markets ultimately decide to listen to?

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Jawboning Continues, Markets Wait For Something Real

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The major indexes slipped early as stalled peace talks with Iran and a fresh escalation in the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices higher, keeping geopolitical tensions front and center heading into an important week.

Over the weekend, President Trump scrapped plans to send U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan for ceasefire talks related to Iran, saying negotiations could just as easily happen by phone.

“Too much time wasted on traveling, too much work!” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Nobody knows who is in charge, including them. Also, we have all the cards; they have none! If they want to talk, all they have to do is call!!!”

Iran, for its part, showed little urgency. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said no meeting between Tehran and Washington is currently planned.

That said, an Axios report suggested Iran has floated a new proposal to the U.S. that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, while pushing nuclear talks to a later date.

So, the jawboning continues, leaving markets stuck in limbo until something concrete and verifiable actually materializes—whenever that may be.

As a result, markets mostly spun their wheels. Oil prices moved higher, bond yields climbed, and the dollar slipped.

If there was a highlight, it was the Magnificent Seven outperforming the rest of the market, beating the S&P 493 on the day.

Gold didn’t get much help from the weaker dollar and slid below $4,700, while Bitcoin pulled back sharply from its recent high of $79,500 to around $76,500.

With headlines driving sentiment and real progress still elusive, the question remains: how long can markets stay patient before uncertainty starts to bite harder?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 04/24/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (245 vs. 228 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For April 24, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

OPTIMISM WINS THE DAY AS TECH AND INTEL STEAL THE SHOW

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The tech sector led the way this morning after traders got a hopeful signal that peace talks between the U.S. and Iran could soon take place in Pakistan.

Reports cited a Pakistani government official saying Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is expected to arrive in Islamabad on Friday evening, raising expectations that negotiations between the two sides may follow.

Oil prices, which had been rallying, lost some steam on the news.

That optimism comes on the heels of President Trump’s announcement Thursday that Israel and Lebanon agreed to extend their ceasefire by another three weeks, following meetings at the White House with senior U.S. officials.

Taken together, the headlines reinforced the idea—at least for now—that tensions may be cooling rather than escalating.

Given Thursday’s pullback from all‑time highs in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, Middle East developments are clearly still capable of moving markets. Even so, traders are trying to look past the geopolitical noise and refocus on corporate earnings.

Today, optimism won out. Stocks surged to fresh record highs as markets latched onto a new wave of “promising” headlines from the U.S., largely brushing aside Iran’s more cautious responses.

Earnings also played a major role. Intel delivered a blowout report, sending its stock up as much as 28% at one point—the biggest one‑day move since Black Monday in 1987—before settling back to a still‑impressive 21% gain. Along the way, Intel surpassed its prior record high from the peak of the dot‑com bubble.

In other markets, bond yields fell after a Justice Department decision involving Powell appeared to clear a path for Kevin Warsh to become the next Fed chair, prompting traders to boost bets on future rate cuts.

Gold and silver ETFs moved modestly higher, while copper and Bitcoin largely treaded water.

With Middle East headlines still in play and next week shaping up as the busiest stretch of earnings season—with 36% of the S&P 500 reporting—traders now face a familiar question:

Can strong earnings and hopes of de‑escalation keep this rally going, or are markets getting ahead of themselves?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 04/23/2026

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, April 23, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +5.96% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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