ETF Tracker Newsletter For July 24, 2026

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ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

CHIP STOCKS SINK NASDAQ AS GEOPOLITICAL RISKS RATTLE MARKETS

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

It was a challenging end to the week for the major indexes, with the Nasdaq once again taking the brunt of the selling pressure as weakness in semiconductor stocks weighed heavily on the tech sector.

Chip stocks got off to a shaky start after Intel initially rallied on better-than-expected second-quarter results, only to reverse course and finish down 4%.

The selling spread across the sector, with Broadcom and AMD each losing 2%, Micron dropping 6%, and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) falling 2%. After months of leading the market higher, semiconductors found themselves firmly in the crosshairs.

The broader market remained on edge following Thursday’s selloff, when the Dow tumbled more than 500 points and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq suffered their largest one-day declines since late June.

Disappointing reactions to earnings from Tesla and Alphabet have raised questions about whether the market’s biggest winners can continue carrying the rally.

Adding to investor unease were rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. President Trump indicated he is considering a major military response against Iran as the conflict continues to expand into the Red Sea region.

Markets dislike uncertainty, and right now traders are being forced to react to a constant stream of geopolitical headlines that can change sentiment in a matter of minutes.

By the closing bell, the Dow managed to stay in positive territory, while the S&P 500 finished little changed.

The Nasdaq, however, ended lower under the weight of chip stocks. For the week, all three major indexes finished in the red, with the Mag 7 notably underperforming the rest of the market.

Outside of equities, bond yields moved higher alongside oil prices, while the dollar posted its strongest weekly performance in more than a month.

Gold recovered to finish above $4,000 an ounce, although well below its intraday highs. Bitcoin briefly tested its mid-June highs before fading and ending the session roughly flat.

One development that may deserve more attention is the growing disruption to global shipping routes in the Middle East. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed dramatically as tensions in and around the Persian Gulf intensify.

With only six ships passing through the strait on Thursday, the lowest level since early May, the potential impact on energy markets and future oil prices is becoming harder to ignore.

With earnings season losing some momentum, geopolitical risks rising, and markets increasingly reacting to each new headline, the key question remains: Can traders keep their confidence in stocks, or is a more cautious stance beginning to make sense?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 07/23/2026

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, July 23, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +7.00% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Oil Shock, AI Spending Fears, And Earnings Misses Slam Stocks

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks had a rough day as a combination of rising geopolitical tensions, surging oil prices, and disappointing reactions to major earnings reports sent traders heading for the exits.

The biggest catalyst was a sharp jump in crude oil after Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militants claimed attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, reigniting fears that the Middle East conflict could broaden.

Adding fuel to the fire, President Trump threatened strikes against Iranian infrastructure, further rattling markets and pushing energy prices sharply higher.

Brent crude surged 6% to move back above $100 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 5% to top $91. Both benchmarks reached their highest levels since before the U.S. and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement last month.

Higher oil prices also spilled over into the bond market. Treasury yields climbed, with the 10-year yield hitting its highest level since January 2025, while a stronger dollar added another headwind for risk assets.

Earnings season did little to calm nerves. Alphabet slid 7% after raising its 2026 capital expenditure outlook to as much as $205 billion, highlighting the enormous costs associated with the AI arms race.

While the company pointed to strong AI demand, investors appeared increasingly concerned about just how much hyperscalers are spending to stay competitive.

Tesla fared even worse, tumbling more than 13% after reporting a significant second-quarter earnings miss. Investors were especially disappointed that operating expenses grew faster than revenue, raising fresh questions about profitability.

Gold was unable to attract much safe-haven interest despite the geopolitical backdrop, slipping while remaining above the psychologically important $4,000 level.

Bitcoin also joined the risk-off move, falling below $65,000 and tracking weakness in technology stocks, even as spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted more than $1 billion in inflows this week.

Meanwhile, Peter Schiff noted that the 30-year Treasury yield has climbed to 5.18%, its highest level since April 2006. Back then, U.S. national debt stood at roughly $8.35 trillion. Today, it’s approaching $39.6 trillion.

If borrowing costs continue moving higher, how sustainable does that debt burden become over the long run?

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Is The Calm About To Break? VIX Signals Higher Volatility Ahead

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The S&P 500 spent most of the session treading water as rising oil prices kept buyers cautious ahead of another packed day of corporate earnings reports.

Oil moved higher after the 11th consecutive round of U.S. strikes against Iran, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio stating that Iran is “not serious about talks.”

He also reiterated that American forces would continue protecting shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy supplies.

Traders remain focused on crude oil because sustained higher energy prices can eventually filter through to consumer goods and services, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve’s efforts to keep inflation under control.

That, in turn, has revived concerns that another rate hike could be back on the table as early as July.

Meanwhile, earnings season remains front and center. Wall Street is looking for fresh clues about AI spending, cloud-computing demand, corporate technology budgets, and management outlooks for the second half of the year.

A key question is whether the strong demand for AI infrastructure and software can continue to support the lofty valuations seen across much of the technology sector.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed crude oil to six-week highs, while bond yields jumped as rate-hike concerns resurfaced.

The combination weighed on equities, with Small Caps taking the biggest hit as yesterday’s short-squeeze rally was completely erased. The Nasdaq also finished lower, while the Dow and S&P 500 managed to end the day essentially unchanged.

Elsewhere, the dollar traded sideways, gold climbed back above the $4,150 level intraday, and Bitcoin pulled back modestly below $66,000.

So, what’s next?

One thing seems increasingly likely: higher volatility. As highlighted by ZeroHedge, historical patterns suggest the VIX may be preparing for a notable move higher.

Whether history repeats itself remains to be seen, but with rising geopolitical tensions, renewed rate-hike fears, and earnings season in full swing, traders may want to buckle up for a bumpier ride ahead.

Will the market once again shrug off these growing concerns, or is volatility finally ready to make a sustained comeback?

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Tech Leads The Charge While Gold, Silver, And Bitcoin Surge

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Despite fresh strikes on Iran and higher oil prices, stocks shrugged off geopolitical concerns and moved higher right from the opening bell.

Traders appeared more focused on a growing list of positive corporate earnings reports, with chipmakers and technology stocks leading the charge.

Earnings season continues to get off to a strong start. Industrial giant 3M surged more than 9% after delivering better-than-expected second-quarter results. General Motors also impressed investors, beating both revenue and earnings estimates and sending its shares up 3%.

So far, corporate America is largely clearing Wall Street’s hurdle. Of the roughly 66 S&P 500 companies that have reported, nearly 88% have exceeded earnings expectations. Still, the next couple of weeks could prove pivotal.

With expectations running high, traders are rewarding companies that deliver and quickly punishing those that fall short.

Today’s rally came on the heels of a weaker session driven by concerns over escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Military activity continued overnight, with both sides remaining engaged in retaliatory actions across the region, keeping geopolitical risks firmly on investors’ radar.

Even so, stocks managed to post solid gains, helped in part by the biggest short squeeze in more than a month.

Equities advanced despite rising bond yields and a stronger dollar, two factors that would normally create headwinds for risk assets.

The metals market also marched to its own beat. Gold climbed sharply to as high as $4,080, while silver surged more than 4%. Bitcoin joined the move higher, briefly approaching $67,000 before giving back a portion of its gains later in the day.

One notable shift was the return of aggressive buying in semiconductors and technology stocks.

The recent trend of investors broadening exposure into other sectors took a back seat as money flowed back into some of the market’s favorite growth names.

With earnings season heating up and geopolitical tensions still simmering in the background, which theme will have the bigger impact on markets over the next few weeks: corporate profits or global events?

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Bitcoin And Copper Stand Out While Stocks Slip Back Into The Red

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks got off to a strong start, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq moving higher as oil prices swung back and forth in response to the latest developments in the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict.

Semiconductor stocks provided additional support, helping lift the broader market early in the session.

Overnight, the U.S. carried out its ninth consecutive day of strikes on Iran.

However, sentiment improved later in the morning after Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei suggested that diplomatic channels remain open. According to him, intermediaries continue to exchange messages with Iran, raising hopes that negotiations could eventually help ease tensions.

Despite the encouraging start, the early rally ultimately ran out of steam. The major indexes steadily gave back their gains, with all three closing modestly in the red as investors continued to grapple with the uncertainty surrounding the rapidly evolving situation in the Middle East.

Elsewhere, oil posted moderate gains, while gold and silver were largely unchanged. Copper and bitcoin managed to buck the market weakness, turning in solid performances despite the decline in equities.

Bond yields moved higher, while the dollar took traders on a roller-coaster ride before ending the day little changed.

Bitcoin was choppy early on but regained its footing, climbing back above $65,500 and holding those gains even as tech stocks faded into the close.

Looking at the bigger picture, it was ultimately a day of treading water. Markets remain caught between geopolitical uncertainty and hopes for a diplomatic resolution, leaving investors hesitant to make any big moves.

Will tomorrow finally bring a clearer direction, or are we in for more of the same back-and-forth trading?

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