ETF Tracker Newsletter For October 16, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

WHEN AI MEETS INTEREST RATES: THIS WEEK’S MARKET LESSON

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Watching the markets, I’d say this week’s story was pretty simple: the AI trade finally met its toughest competitor… higher interest rates.

Money continued rotating out of AI and semiconductor names, with chip stocks taking another step lower and the broader AI basket finishing the week deep in correction territory.

What’s interesting is that this wasn’t a market-wide retreat. Financials held up well, the Dow actually gained ground for the week, and bond yields eased after Wednesday’s spike.

Meanwhile, investors were juggling hotter inflation data, $100+ oil, and a growing realization that the cost of capital matters a lot when future growth is the main attraction.

Gold and bitcoin ended the week largely unchanged, proving that sometimes the most exciting thing an asset can do is absolutely nothing.

The bigger question now is whether this is simply another healthy AI correction we’ve seen before, or the start of a longer reset in leadership.

Read More

Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 10/15/2026

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, October 15, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +4.53% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

Read More

AI Doubts And Inflation Fears Leave Markets Searching For Direction

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Today felt a little like a reality check for the AI trade. Traders grew increasingly nervous about whether some companies are spending too aggressively on artificial intelligence, while another round of inflation data reminded everyone that the Fed may not be off the hook just yet.

The Dow came out strong early, but technology stocks struggled to find their footing as concerns around AI spending weighed on sentiment.

The selling was led by CoreWeave, while questions surfaced about whether the revenue growth across parts of the AI ecosystem is keeping pace with the lofty expectations already priced into many chip and infrastructure names.

Meanwhile, September’s inflation data continued to run hotter than investors would like, reinforcing the idea that interest rates could stay higher for longer.

Oddly enough, markets couldn’t seem to agree on the message. Bond yields slipped, oil prices surged, the dollar weakened, gold rallied, and Bitcoin bounced.

When stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies are all singing different songs, it’s no surprise traders are having trouble finding the rhythm.

The good news? The S&P 500 and Nasdaq managed to claw their way back to roughly unchanged by the close.

The bigger question now is whether the market can keep moving higher if inflation stays sticky and AI leadership starts losing a little of its shine.

Read More

Inflation Reheats, Markets Cool Off

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Markets came into the day hoping inflation would keep cooling, but September’s CPI report had other ideas.

A slightly hotter-than-expected reading sent bond yields higher, strengthened the dollar, and put immediate pressure on stocks as investors once again questioned how long interest rates may stay elevated.

What stood out wasn’t just the inflation data. Several major banks delivered solid earnings, yet their stocks still finished lower, suggesting investors are raising the bar heading into earnings season.

Add in crude oil pushing back above $96, a stronger dollar weighing on gold and crypto, and renewed concerns around AI-related credit risk (CRWV), and you had a recipe for broad-based selling across nearly every asset class.

The Magnificent Seven had been carrying the market lately, but even they couldn’t escape gravity today.

The question now is whether tomorrow’s PPI report can offer some relief, or if inflation and rates will continue to call the tune.

Was today just a bump in the road, or a reminder that the inflation fight may not be over yet?

Read More

Markets Juggle Bank Earnings, Chip Fears, And Tomorrow’s CPI

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks stumbled out of the gate today as traders sorted through the first wave of big-bank earnings and a sharp overnight selloff in South Korea that weighed on memory and semiconductor names.

The banks themselves didn’t disappoint so much as they ran into a buzzsaw of high expectations.

JPMorgan initially traded lower after missing forecasts but bounced back after raising its 2026 net interest income outlook.

Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs delivered mixed reactions as investors focused less on what was reported and more on what comes next. With analysts looking for nearly 30% year-over-year earnings growth from the S&P 500, the hurdle-rate this season remains awfully high.

Elsewhere, memory stocks felt pressure after South Korea’s Kospi dropped 5.5% amid valuation concerns and rising competition from China.

Oil moved higher on renewed geopolitical tensions, while stronger-than-expected home sales and mixed Fed commentary nudged rate-hike odds higher ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report.

Bonds, gold, and the dollar all churned around, while Bitcoinv managed to survive another roller-coaster ride with a modest gain.

One strategist noted that today’s semiconductor landscape bears an uncomfortable resemblance to the late stages of the dot-com boom.

Is that a warning sign, or just another reminder that every market cycle eventually finds a way to rhyme?

Read More

Record-Low Volume: Calm Before The Earnings Storm?

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The market started the week with a split personality.

The Dow managed to stay in positive territory, helped by a strong move in Salesforce after a favorable analyst upgrade, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq drifted lower as investors looked ahead to a packed week of earnings reports and inflation data.

Tech was a mixed bag. Micron weighed on the Nasdaq after concerns emerged about growing competition from China’s CXMT, but the broader AI story remains intact.

In fact, expectations for another strong earnings season continue to underpin investor optimism. As always, though, what executives say about demand, costs, and the road ahead may matter more than the numbers they report.

Geopolitics also kept traders on their toes. Oil climbed roughly 2% as fresh tensions in the Middle East overshadowed talk of a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire. It seems every diplomatic headline now comes with a sequel before the credits even roll.

Under the surface, market breadth actually improved, the Magnificent Seven outperformed the other 493 members of the S&P 500, and the dollar climbed to its highest level since May 2025.

Gold felt the pressure from the stronger dollar, while Bitcoin’s weekend rally fizzled just enough to end little changed from Friday.

Perhaps the most interesting development was the lack of participation. Trading volume was exceptionally light, reaching levels rarely seen outside holiday periods.

Is this simply traders catching their breath ahead of earnings season, or an early sign of investor fatigue?

Read More