ETF Tracker Newsletter For August 7, 2026

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ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

STOCKS CLIMB, GOLD SHINES, AND THE FED GETS BREATHING ROOM

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

This morning, the market pulled off one of its favorite tricks: bad economic news turned into good market news.

July’s jobs report was much weaker than expected, with payrolls actually shrinking and prior months revised sharply lower.

While that’s not exactly a cause for celebration on Main Street, Wall Street saw it as a sign the Fed can stay on the sidelines rather than reach for another rate hike.

That shift in expectations sent bond yields lower and helped push stocks higher, with software shares leading the charge.

Precious metals stole the show for the week, though. Gold posted its strongest weekly gain in seven months, silver sprinted ahead with a 10% jump, and even Bitcoin joined the risk-on mood by climbing back above $65,000.

The big debate now is what comes next: does sticky inflation keep yields elevated, or does a cooling economy ultimately pull them lower?

That’s the tug-of-war bond investors are wrestling with today. So, if you had to pick a side right now, would you bet on inflation or slowing growth?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 08/06/2026

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, August 6, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +9.60% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Rally Loses Momentum While Middle East Headlines Drive Attention

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The market spent most of the day treading water as investors balanced another round of earnings reports against the ever-changing headlines out of the Middle East.

While discussions around reopening the Strait of Hormuz helped keep hopes alive, the details still matter, and the market seems to be growing a bit skeptical of promises before seeing signatures.

By the closing bell, the major indexes finished modestly lower as the recent short-squeeze rally continued to lose steam.

The Mag 7 once again carried more than its share of the load, while rising bond yields gave the dollar a lift.

In the commodities space, oil moved higher on the Strait developments, gold briefly pushed above $4,300 before ending flat, and silver remained the standout performer among the metals.

Bitcoin also knocked on the door of $65,000 several times but, like an eager salesman, couldn’t quite get anyone to answer.

The bigger question remains whether investors can continue looking past geopolitical risks, or if reality eventually catches up with the market. Are traders showing resilience, or simply complacency?

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Gold Steals The Show As Stocks Pause Near Record Highs

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks came out of the gate with plenty of energy today, pushing the S&P 500 to another intraday record as investors cheered strong earnings and growing optimism that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen sooner rather than later.

By the closing bell, however, much of that enthusiasm had cooled. The Dow held on to most of its gains, while the Nasdaq slipped into the red as the Mag 7 took a breather and the broader market quietly carried the load.

The headline grabbers weren’t stocks anyway. Gold and silver stole the spotlight, both surging more than 4%, while the dollar weakened and Bitcoin marched closer to $65,000. It was one of those days when hard assets reminded everyone they’re still very much in the game.

Investors largely shrugged off a softer-than-expected ADP jobs report and instead focused on earnings, commodity moves, and signs that market leadership may be broadening beyond big tech.

The big question now: after six months of moving sideways to lower, have precious metals finally regained their footing and begun the next bull market advance?

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Wall Street Throws A Party: Earnings Up, Oil Down, Stocks Soar

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Today’s rally had two clear drivers: stronger-than-expected earnings and a sudden drop in geopolitical anxiety.

Traders cheered upbeat results from companies like Palantir and Caterpillar, while comments suggesting progress in U.S.-Iran talks helped send oil prices lower, easing one of the market’s biggest recent concerns.

The result?

Stocks took off and never really looked back. The Dow closed at another record high, the Nasdaq posted its best day in more than a year, and the mega-cap growth names kept flexing their muscles.

Amazon crossed the $3 trillion mark, Nvidia reclaimed the $5 trillion club, and the Magnificent Seven added another impressive chapter to an already remarkable run.

What’s especially interesting is how resilient this market has been. With more than 84% of S&P 500 companies beating earnings expectations, investors seem willing to focus on profits rather than problems.

Add in falling bond yields, a weaker dollar, strength in gold and Bitcoin, and even a healthy dose of short-covering, and you had a near-perfect recipe for a risk-on day.

The bulls are certainly enjoying themselves right now, but after a four-day sprint that’s left the bears looking for the emergency exit, the question is: does this rally still have fuel in the tank, or is the market getting a little ahead of itself?

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Oil Drops, Stocks Climb: A Better Mood, But Not Quite A Victory Lap

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks started the new month on the right foot after President Trump said planned strikes against Iran had been called off and that talks would resume.

The news took some geopolitical premium out of the market, sending oil prices sharply lower and giving investors a reason to put risk assets back in their shopping carts.

Crude took the biggest hit, with Brent falling nearly 6%, while bond yields also eased as inflation worries cooled a bit.

Gold and the dollar were content to tread water, and Bitcoin bounced back above $64,000, proving once again that it rarely likes being left out of the conversation.

That said, traders aren’t exactly breaking out the champagne. We’ve seen a few of these “all clear” signals before, only to discover the story wasn’t over.

For now, markets are enjoying the relief rally, but the bigger test may come later this week as investors digest a full slate of labor data, culminating in Friday’s payrolls report.

With earnings season fading into the background, the spotlight shifts back to rates, inflation, and growth, along with the age-old question: will bond market volatility rattle stocks again, or is this time really different?

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