From Early Optimism To Late‑Day Anxiety

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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A positive start to the day fizzled out quickly, with the major indexes sliding into the red as traders waited for fresh developments out of the Middle East. With the current ceasefire set to expire on Wednesday, uncertainty once again took center stage.

President Trump told CNBC that he expects the U.S. and Iran to reach a “great deal,” but he also made it clear that the U.S. military is ready to act if no agreement is signed before the deadline — and that he has no intention of extending the ceasefire. That tougher tone followed an earlier Truth Social post in which Trump claimed Iran had “violated the ceasefire numerous times.”

Despite the headlines, Wall Street appears to be slowly looking past the immediate conflict.

What really matters to markets is the normalization of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and on that front, it feels like we’re getting closer. There was a brief pickup in commercial vessel traffic over the weekend, although that momentum stalled again after several reported attacks on ships.

By the close, the major indexes couldn’t recover and finished solidly in the red. Anxiety around the ceasefire deadline weighed on nearly every sector, with “value” stocks being the lone area showing some resilience. Even an early short squeeze failed to stick, leaving small caps as the day’s clear underperformers.

Economic data offered some bright spots. Retail sales surprised to the upside, core sales came in strong, and pending home sales jumped sharply in March. Still, the macro news struggled to offset geopolitical concerns.

Bond yields moved higher, pushing the dollar up as well — a tough combination for gold, which slipped below the $4,800 level and tested the $4,700 area. Bitcoin faded too but held up better than the metals overall.

With uncertainty in the Middle East still elevated — and the risk of no truce looming — the odds of another equity drawdown remain uncomfortably high, while hopes for a sustained rally continue to fade.

The question now is: what will it take to shift sentiment decisively back to the upside?

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Ceasefire Expiration Looms – Markets Tread Carefully

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The major indexes opened lower as tensions between the U.S. and Iran heated up over the weekend, but traders are still holding onto hope that the two sides will eventually reach some kind of compromise.

President Trump announced on Sunday that the U.S. had seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, and he once again threatened to blow up Iran’s power plants and bridges if no deal is reached. The current ceasefire is set to expire this week.

By the end of the session, oil prices were higher while stocks finished only modestly lower.

Small caps were the clear winner thanks to another strong short squeeze, while the Nasdaq lagged. The Mag 7, which had outperformed recently, pulled back and underperformed the rest of the S&P 493 today.

Bond yields opened higher but ended unchanged, rate-cut expectations improved slightly, the dollar chopped around, and gold finished a bit in the red. Bitcoin slid over the weekend but made a strong comeback and climbed back above $76K.

At this point, price momentum and solid earnings are helping offset the geopolitical disappointments. But if the peace narrative starts to look fragile or falls apart, the market could follow suit quickly.

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 04/17/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (220 vs. 245 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For April 17, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

IRAN REOPENS STRAIT – STOCKS ROCKET HIGHER ON CEASEFIRE HOPES

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Stocks rocketed higher on Friday after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open” following a ceasefire announcement between Israel and Lebanon. The news removed a major supply disruption fear and sent oil prices tumbling.

West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 14% to around $80 a barrel, while Brent fell 13% to about $86.

President Trump thanked Iran for reopening the strait and said the U.S. Navy’s blockade of Iranian ports will stay in place until a full peace agreement is reached, adding that the process “should go very quickly.”

Despite some confusing and conflicting headlines, traders didn’t care — they pushed stocks, gold, and Bitcoin sharply higher. Rate-cut odds also improved.

The Nasdaq 100 extended its winning streak to 13 straight days (its longest since July 2013).

Since the war began, stocks have massively outperformed bonds, though breadth remains weak. The Mag 7 showed strength again, and small caps joined the party.

Bond yields dropped, the dollar fell for the third week in a row, gold spiked toward $4,900, silver outperformed, and Bitcoin surged above $78K for the first time since early February — solidly outperforming gold since the conflict started.

To me, the big question now is whether this jawboning and relentless headline ping-pong can actually turn into a sustainable truce, so today’s advances aren’t wiped out by the next sudden jerk.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 04/16/2026

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, April 16, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +5.32% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Stocks Rebound Strongly – Iran Deal Optimism Fuels Gains

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped after hitting fresh record highs earlier in the session, but they recovered nicely by the close.

Both indexes are on track for a strong week, with the S&P up about 3% and the Nasdaq gaining more than 4%, while the Dow is up around 1%.

Milestones were hit on Wednesday: The S&P 500 closed above 7,000 for the first time ever, and the Nasdaq closed above 24,000 for the first time.

The lift came after President Trump said the Iran war is “very close to over” and announced upcoming talks between Israel and Lebanon. Halting attacks on Lebanon has been a key condition for broader Iran negotiations.

Stocks have now fully recovered all losses since the war began in late February.

We’re basically back to where we were valuation-wise and sentiment-wise before the conflict, but for the rally to keep going, we’ll likely need to see it broaden out beyond just the Nasdaq and big tech.

Headlines continue to drive direction. ZeroHedge summed up the key ones today as:

GOOD: Trump says talks with Iran are looking very promising — less pain

BAD: Gulf and European officials think a deal could take 6 months — more pain

UGLY: Trump warns that if no deal, fighting will resume — serious pain

Bond yields rose, the most-shorted stocks continued to get squeezed, and the dollar went nowhere.

Gold stayed flat around $4,800, while Bitcoin tested $73K before bouncing back toward $75K.

Relentless hope for a negotiated settlement with Iran, combined with resilient economic data, has kept the rally alive — at least for now.

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