1. Moving the market

Stocks got off to a solid start, with the major indexes moving higher early on, helped in part by a pullback in oil prices.

Traders were also positioning ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report after the close—a key event for the AI trade and overall chip demand. Nvidia shares were already edging higher ahead of the release, showing how much attention this name still commands.

It makes sense, too. One analyst noted that Nvidia alone has driven roughly 20% of the S&P 500’s gains this year—and nearly as much of its projected earnings growth—so whatever comes out of that report has the potential to move the entire market.

That’s especially important given the recent backdrop. Rising bond yields had pressured stocks over the last few sessions, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq logging three straight declines.

The 30‑year yield even briefly topped 5.19%, its highest level in nearly 19 years, as inflation worries and uncertainty around the U.S.–Iran situation kept investors on edge.

But today, the tone flipped. Yields backed off sharply, oil prices dropped, and markets caught a strong bid after comments from Trump suggesting the U.S. may be in the “final stages” of negotiations with Iran.

Small caps led the charge, staging an impressive 2.5% rebound as yesterday’s short squeeze carried over. This time, though, the rally had better participation, with both the Magnificent 7 and the broader S&P 493 moving higher together.

The dollar took a hit on the day, which gave gold a lift back above $4,500. Bitcoin followed the risk-on mood as well, tracking big tech and pushing back above $77,500.

All told, markets seem to be climbing that familiar “wall of worry”—balancing strong economic data, shifting rate expectations, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

But with so many moving parts, the big question remains: how long can this rally hold together before the next curveball hits?

1. Moving the market

Stocks were under pressure right from the open, as a sharp jump in bond yields threw a wrench into the bull market.

Higher rates weighed on the consumer outlook and hit tech stocks particularly hard, taking some of the shine off recent growth momentum.

Traders were also keeping an eye on the oil market after President Trump called off planned strikes on Iran, while continued weakness in chip stocks added to the cautious tone.

The real story, though, was in bonds. The 30‑year Treasury yield pushed above 5.18%, hitting its highest level in nearly 19 years. That move follows last week’s inflation data, which showed price pressures heating up again—partly driven by higher oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions.

Rising rates are starting to ripple through the economy. Higher borrowing costs—from mortgages to credit cards—could slow consumer spending, while also putting pressure on lofty valuations, especially in high‑growth areas like semiconductors.

There’s also growing chatter that the Fed may be behind the curve on inflation, with new Chair Kevin Warsh stepping in later this week. Some analysts are even floating the idea of a rate hike as soon as July—something that would likely add even more pressure to equities and potentially threaten the current bull run.

By the close, higher yields had drained most of the bullish energy out of the market. Stocks finished lower, while the dollar caught a strong bid—pushing above its 200‑day moving average for the first time in over six weeks.

Gold felt the double hit from rising yields and a stronger dollar, bouncing around the $4,500 level before slipping slightly below it. Bitcoin had a choppy session of its own but ultimately finished about where it started.

As for geopolitics, markets seem a bit less reactive to the usual headline swings. While tensions with Iran remain unresolved, traders are starting to take some of the rhetoric in stride, especially with little real progress on negotiations.

At the end of the day, it all keeps circling back to rates—so the big question is: how much higher can yields go before something in the market finally breaks?