Bond Yields Jump, Big Tech Shines, And Inflation Won’t Cool

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Markets were all over the place today after another hotter‑than‑expected inflation report sent bond yields racing to a 10‑month intraday high. The Dow slid early under the weight of rising rates, while strong gains in chip stocks helped keep the Nasdaq afloat.

Tech once again led the charge, easily outperforming the rest of the market. Meanwhile, inflation fears—made worse by rising energy prices tied to escalating tensions in the Middle East—pressed on more rate‑sensitive sectors like retail and banking.

Just a day earlier, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq had already backed off record highs following a hotter‑than‑expected consumer inflation print.

Then came Wednesday’s producer price index, and it didn’t help matters. PPI jumped 1.4% in April, the biggest monthly increase since March 2022 and far above the 0.5% economists were expecting. On an annual basis, wholesale inflation surged 6%, topping estimates and marking the strongest reading since late 2022.

For policymakers, this kind of data is about as unwelcome as it gets. No matter who’s in charge, inflation running this hot makes it tough to even talk about interest‑rate cuts anytime soon.

By the end of the session, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq managed to squeeze out modest gains, while the Dow climbed out of a deep early hole to finish roughly flat.

In commodities, oil kept ripping higher—up more than 8% over the past three sessions—as Middle East tensions simmered, and global stockpiles continued to shrink at a record pace.

Big tech stocks also stood out, with the “Magnificent 7” once again crushing the rest of the S&P 500.

The dollar drifted slightly, while gold followed along and found support near $4,700.

Silver stayed red‑hot, rising for a seventh straight session, and topping $89 for the first time in two months. Bitcoin pulled back but found solid footing around $79,000.

Inflation and global rates remain the main drivers of market action—but it’s really the speed of the move in bond yields that matters most. So, when does that finally start to hit stocks in a meaningful way?

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Risk‑Off Returns As CPI And Crude Heat Up

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The major indexes slid right out of the gate, pressured by rising oil prices as traders digested a hotter‑than‑expected April CPI report. Inflation worries quickly took center stage.

West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 3%, pushing back above $101 a barrel, adding fuel to concerns that higher energy costs could keep inflation sticky.

The move built on Monday’s oil rally, which followed President Trump calling the month‑old U.S.–Iran ceasefire “unbelievably weak” and “on massive life support” after rejecting what he labeled an unacceptable counterproposal from Tehran.

Iran’s latest offer reportedly included demands for war reparations, full control of the Strait of Hormuz, the release of frozen assets, and the lifting of sanctions—terms that appear to have stalled any real progress toward peace.

Against that backdrop, inflation data drew extra scrutiny. The CPI rose 0.6% in April, pushing the year‑over‑year rate to 3.8%, slightly above expectations of 3.7% and the highest reading since May 2023.

It wasn’t a sudden spike, but rather another step higher—suggesting inflation pressures may continue to build if the Middle East conflict drags on.

Markets managed to recover some ground late in the session, but the damage was already done.

Only the Dow eked out a marginal gain, while the S&P 500 finished flat and the Nasdaq remained in the red. Small Caps were hit hard, though they did bounce off their worst levels.

Elsewhere, bond yields climbed, the dollar rallied back toward last week’s highs, and gold chopped around to finish roughly unchanged.

Silver shook off early weakness and closed higher, while Bitcoin slipped but found support near the $80,000 level.

All told, it had the feel of a risk‑off day, with hopes for easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran pushed firmly to the back burner.

The question now is: how much longer can markets shrug off rising inflation and geopolitical uncertainty before it really starts to matter?

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Markets Shrug Off Geopolitics And Push Higher Again

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The major indexes opened slightly higher after wrapping up a solid winning week on Wall Street, even as oil prices pushed up following President Trump’s rejection of Iran’s latest proposal to end the war.

Iran had sent a new counteroffer to U.S. negotiators that called for ending the conflict on all fronts and lifting sanctions on Tehran, according to semi‑official Tasnim news agency. Trump wasted no time responding, calling the proposal “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!” in a Truth Social post.

Even so, many traders seem willing to look past the noise. The prevailing view is that, despite the war and the oil shock, the broader U.S. economy is still holding up better than most people expected.

That mindset showed up again today. Even after Trump later said the ceasefire deal was “on life support,” and despite rising oil prices and higher bond yields, stocks managed to grind out another round of modest gains. Small caps led the way, fueled by a sizeable short squeeze.

The S&P 500 logged its fifth consecutive intraday record high and its 13th intraday record this month, as one of the strongest earnings seasons in years continued to overpower the latest round of Middle East jawboning.

Leadership was broader than usual. The Magnificent Seven underperformed the S&P 493, the dollar edged slightly higher, and gold posted a modest gain.

Silver stole the spotlight, extending its rally to a fifth straight day and jumping 6.8%, its highest level in two months. Bitcoin chopped around but eventually found its footing, closing above $82,000.

Once again, the market seemed largely disconnected from events on the ground in the Middle East. With both sides under pressure to strike a deal that still remains elusive, it’s hard not to wonder: how long will equities continue to look past the risks?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 05/08/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (219 vs. 221 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For May 8, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

RECORD HIGHS CONTINUE, BUT BREADTH TELLS A DIFFERENT STORY

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

U.S. equities got off to a strong start after a better‑than‑expected April jobs report, while traders also kept a close eye on developments between the U.S. and Iran. The positive tone carried through the session and capped off another solid week for stocks.

All three major averages finished higher, backed by a strong earnings season. Tech results in particular pushed the Nasdaq toward a roughly 3% weekly gain, while the S&P 500 is up about 2%, marking its sixth straight winning week. The Dow lagged again, but still managed a modest 0.7% gain on the week.

Friday’s strength broadened somewhat thanks to a surge in chip stocks. Micron jumped 10% and Qualcomm climbed 9%, putting Qualcomm on pace for its fourth consecutive up day and giving the broader market an extra lift.

The jobs report helped reinforce the upbeat mood. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 115,000, easily topping expectations of 55,000, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. In short, the labor market continues to show resilience.

Geopolitics, however, stayed in the background. Oil prices ticked higher, with WTI hovering around $95 per barrel, after the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides blaming the other for striking first.

By the close, markets not only held onto early gains but added to them. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished at new record highs, supported by hopes for a U.S.–Iran peace deal, easing oil prices, and constructive macro data.

That said, leadership remains narrow. The Magnificent Seven have dramatically outperformed the S&P 493 over the past three days, but market breadth continues to deteriorate. Bond yields bounced around but ended the week roughly unchanged.

The dollar fell for the fifth time in the last six weeks, sliding to three‑month lows. Gold rebounded sharply after finding support near $4,500, snapping a two‑week losing streak.

Bitcoin rallied for a sixth straight week, though it once again stalled at its 200‑day moving average.

With an extended U.S.–Iran ceasefire, strong earnings, and macro data that still show little fallout from the conflict, traders are trying to figure out their next move — but the big question remains: how long can this rally last if leadership keeps getting narrower?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 05/07/2026

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, May 7, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +5.96% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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