Gold Above $5,100, Silver +4% – Commodities Carry The Load

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The major indexes opened with a nice pop after the January nonfarm payrolls report came in way stronger than expected: +130,000 jobs added vs. economists’ call for just +55,000.

That was also a big step up from December’s downwardly revised +48,000. It marked the best monthly gain in over a year, though the growth was heavily concentrated in health care (which added 124,000 positions—double its usual pace).

That said, there’s still the ongoing pattern of downward revisions throughout 2025 (average monthly job growth for the year was only +15,000 after all adjustments), so some traders are calling today’s number a potential outlier.

Rate-cut expectations dropped sharply on the back of the strong print.

Early enthusiasm faded fast—the indexes dove into the red mid-session, tried to claw back, but ultimately closed basically flat.

The Mag 7 underperformed the rest of the S&P 493 again, bond yields rallied higher, and the dollar slipped for the fourth straight day.

Bitcoin dipped but bounced off the $65K level. The metals provided the real lift: gold held firm above $5,100, and silver jumped over 4%, giving our portfolios a nice cushion despite the equity drag.

It’s a great example of how commodities can act as solid insurance when stocks go sideways.

Read More

Early Rally Fades – Retail Sales Flat, Indexes Mixed

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks kicked off the day with some nice early lift, and the Dow even tagged another all-time high as traders rotated into software names and more value-oriented areas.

The Dow closed up about 0.5%, getting a solid boost from Disney (entertainment) plus financials like American Express and Goldman Sachs.

The broader market got some help from software stocks, which had been hammered last week. Datadog bounced 15% and ServiceNow added 4%—decent rebounds.

But the rally lost steam later on: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq faded and ended up in the red.

Retailers like Costco and Walmart slipped roughly 1% each after the December retail sales report came in flat (missing the expected +0.4% gain). That followed November’s +0.6% increase, so consumer spending is looking a bit softer.

Bond yields eased back, the dollar limped lower, and the Citi Economic Surprise Index corrected a bit.

Precious metals held their ground: gold bounced around above $5,000 the whole session, silver stayed steady near $80, and Bitcoin showed early strength but faded, losing its $70K level.

ZH summed it up best: Traders are now locked and loaded for Wednesday’s big jobs report—everyone’s watching to see if the numbers are noisier and less meaningful than usual after the recent disruptions.

Read More

Silver Leads Commodities, Gold Nears $5,100 – Risk-On Returns

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

After a weak open, the major indexes shook off the early blues and found solid footing, heading into positive territory for a nice green close.

Traders were mostly focused on waiting for big upcoming data (delayed January jobs report Wednesday) and another wave of earnings, following last week’s volatility.

Oracle jumped 8% after getting upgraded to Buy on fresh optimism around OpenAI and its ecosystem beneficiaries. Fellow chip names kept the momentum going too—Nvidia and Broadcom each extended Friday’s gains, up almost 3% and more than 1%, respectively.

The delayed January jobs report (pushed back by the government shutdown) is due Wednesday, with economists expecting around +55,000 nonfarm payrolls after last week’s weak ADP print of just +22,000.

Friday brings the January CPI, with consensus looking for a 2.5% annual rate.

It turned into a classic “buy everything” kind of day—small caps outperformed, Big Tech held strong, the Dow clung to its 50,000 level, and the Mag 7 actually outperformed the rest of the S&P 493 for a change.

Most shorted stocks kept Friday’s ramp alive (now up 11% over two days), and US Growth beat US Value for the second straight session.

Bond yields slipped, the dollar continued Friday’s sell-off, but commodities stayed firm—silver led again, gold nearly recaptured $5,100, and Bitcoin chopped around before climbing back above $71K.

With the Nasdaq staying strong, metals continuing to lead, and the international TTI pulling ahead, this feels like a healthy broadening of the rally across regions and asset classes.

Read More

ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 02/06/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (272 vs. 268 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For February 6, 2026

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

LATE PANIC-BID SAVES THE WEEK – S&P FLAT AFTER ROLLERCOASTER

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The Dow surged 1,200 points (about 2.5%) and blasted through 50,000 for the first time ever, flipping positive for the week. The S&P 500 jumped 2%, the Nasdaq added 2.2%, and the S&P clawed its way back into the green for 2026 overall.

Nvidia and Broadcom were two of the big winners, each up 7% after getting crushed earlier in the week. Oracle, Palantir, and other beaten-down names bounced too as traders started scooping up cheaper levels.

The vibe felt like a “great recalibration” in progress—money rotating out of high-growth tech into value and cyclical areas (industrials, financials, etc.).

Value massively outperformed growth this week, with the Mag 7 underperforming the S&P 493 by a wide margin. Microsoft is now down 30% from its all-time high.

Bitcoin staged a monster rebound, climbing 11% to get back above $70,000 after briefly tanking below $61,000 overnight (more than 52% off its October 2025 record of $126,000).

Precious metals recovered too, though silver lagged for the week. Gold pushed toward $5,000 again but came up short.

Bond yields ended the week lower (rate-cut expectations soared on weak labor data and the puking in stocks), and the dollar finally turned higher.

A late-day panic-bid (possibly sparked by Fed’s Daly saying 1–2 more rate cuts may be needed) helped lift the S&P to flat on the week.

With the Dow smashing 50,000, tech bouncing hard, value leading the charge, and Bitcoin clawing back big, does this feel like the market’s shaking off the mid-February slump early and setting up for more upside?

Read More

Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 02/05/2026

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, February 5, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +6.78% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

Read More