
- Moving the market
Stocks got off to a solid start, with the major indexes moving higher early on, helped in part by a pullback in oil prices.
Traders were also positioning ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report after the close—a key event for the AI trade and overall chip demand. Nvidia shares were already edging higher ahead of the release, showing how much attention this name still commands.
It makes sense, too. One analyst noted that Nvidia alone has driven roughly 20% of the S&P 500’s gains this year—and nearly as much of its projected earnings growth—so whatever comes out of that report has the potential to move the entire market.
That’s especially important given the recent backdrop. Rising bond yields had pressured stocks over the last few sessions, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq logging three straight declines.
The 30‑year yield even briefly topped 5.19%, its highest level in nearly 19 years, as inflation worries and uncertainty around the U.S.–Iran situation kept investors on edge.
But today, the tone flipped. Yields backed off sharply, oil prices dropped, and markets caught a strong bid after comments from Trump suggesting the U.S. may be in the “final stages” of negotiations with Iran.
Small caps led the charge, staging an impressive 2.5% rebound as yesterday’s short squeeze carried over. This time, though, the rally had better participation, with both the Magnificent 7 and the broader S&P 493 moving higher together.
The dollar took a hit on the day, which gave gold a lift back above $4,500. Bitcoin followed the risk-on mood as well, tracking big tech and pushing back above $77,500.
All told, markets seem to be climbing that familiar “wall of worry”—balancing strong economic data, shifting rate expectations, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
But with so many moving parts, the big question remains: how long can this rally hold together before the next curveball hits?
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