Under Pressure: Tech, Crypto, And Energy All Feel The Heat

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The major indexes started the morning on the upswing, helped by falling oil prices and some cautious optimism ahead of Micron’s earnings after the close.

Energy stocks, however, didn’t share in the upbeat start. Big names like Exxon, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips each dropped more than 2%, while SLB fell over 3%. The broader energy ETF (XLE) was down nearly 2%, reflecting the pressure across the sector.

In tech, Micron slipped about 1% heading into its report, with peer Sandisk also edging lower. Both stocks are still recovering from a brutal 13% drop in the prior session.

This follows Tuesday’s tech-led selloff that dragged down both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Many traders are viewing this pullback as a healthy reset after a strong run, especially with valuations stretched and earnings expectations running high.

With earnings season picking up again in July, the bar for tech companies may be tougher to clear than investors would like.

Just like yesterday, the Nasdaq led the downside move, while the Dow managed to squeeze out a modest gain. The Mag 7 once again lagged the broader market, adding to the pressure.

Elsewhere, oil continued to retreat, with WTI falling back toward the $70 level—its lowest since the U.S.-Iran conflict began—as supply conditions appear to be improving faster than expected.

Bond yields eased, but the dollar kept climbing, hitting its highest level in 13 months. Gold dipped below $4,000 for the first time since November 2025 before closing just above that level, while Bitcoin took a hit as well, briefly dropping below $60K and testing support at its June lows.

Despite the ongoing correction in metals, one interesting development stands out: China imported 163 tons of gold in May—the highest level in over two years.

Which raises an intriguing question: Why is China buying aggressively while U.S. investors seem to be heading for the exits?

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From Seoul To Silicon Valley: Chip Stocks Spark Broad Sell-Off

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks came under pressure right out of the gate as a tech sell-off from the previous session gained momentum overnight. Weakness in Asia set the tone, with memory chip stocks getting hit hard and dragging global markets lower.

The Nasdaq took the biggest hit, falling 1.3% on Monday, weighed down largely by Alphabet. Selling pressure then spread across the globe, with South Korea’s Kospi leading the decline as chip-related names got routed.

That weakness carried into U.S. trading. Micron dropped 10%, Sandisk slid 12%, and Seagate lost more than 7%. Intel was off 3%, while AMD and Qualcomm fell 5% and 9%, respectively. Alphabet continued to struggle after Monday’s 5% drop, as concerns linger about key AI talent leaving the company.

By the close, what started as a regional tech sell-off turned into a broader hit to U.S. big tech, with the Nasdaq leading losses while the Dow managed to finish roughly flat.

On the macro side, the data didn’t do the market any favors. Philly Fed Services and manufacturing/business conditions came in weak, though the U.S. PMI surprised to the upside, hitting a five-month high thanks to stronger manufacturing and some easing in price pressures.

Elsewhere, slightly lower oil prices added to the cautious mood, and interestingly, the “S&P 493” actually underperformed the Mag 7—a reversal of the usual trend.

Bond yields edged lower, the dollar continued to climb, and that combination weighed on precious metals, with silver taking the biggest hit. Gold managed to hold near $4,100, while Bitcoin hung onto the $62K level—for now.

At the end of the day, there really wasn’t much of a safe haven, leaving traders on edge and wondering how equities might react if the Fed follows through with potential rate hikes in September and December, especially with inflation still showing signs of stickiness.

So, the question is: are we just seeing a temporary shakeout in tech, or is this the start of a bigger reset for the market?

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Markets Drift Lower While Traders Brace For Key Fed Inflation Signal

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The major indexes kicked things off on a mixed note, while oil prices slid as traders weighed the latest developments in Iran negotiations and looked ahead to key inflation data the Fed is watching closely.

Oil was a big story. Brent crude turned lower after mediators in Qatar and Pakistan indicated that U.S. and Iranian officials had agreed on a 60-day roadmap toward a potential deal.

Prices drifted even lower after the Treasury Department gave the green light for Iranian oil sales during that period, pushing crude toward session lows.

In equities, chip stocks had a pretty solid showing. Micron stood out, jumping more than 3% ahead of its earnings report later this week. AMD and Intel joined the move, gaining about 1% and 3%, respectively.

On the flip side, SpaceX didn’t have a great day, dropping 16% and marking its third consecutive decline.

Looking ahead, the big focus is Thursday’s release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—the PCE index. Expectations are that core PCE (excluding food and energy) will tick higher compared to April, which is keeping traders on edge.

That’s especially important after last week’s hawkish Fed meeting, which pulled expectations for a rate hike forward to as soon as October. Right now, the market is extremely sensitive to anything that could hint at when the Fed might actually pull the trigger.

By the close, falling oil prices weren’t enough to keep stocks afloat. Rising bond yields weighed on tech, leaving the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in the red, while the Dow barely managed to finish in positive territory. The Mag 7 notably lagged.

Elsewhere, the dollar edged higher, gold hovered around the $4,200 level, and Bitcoin chopped around—briefly hitting $65.5K before ending slightly higher.

One interesting dynamic: upside surprises in inflation are now lining up with stronger-than-expected economic data.

That complicates things for incoming Fed Chair Warsh, who may soon have to decide whether inflation is truly “transitory” or something more persistent. If it’s the latter, the risk of “catch-up” rate hikes comes into play—a scenario the market would rather avoid.

With inflation data looming and rate expectations shifting, my question is: are markets underestimating how aggressively the Fed may need to act?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 06/18/2026

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, June 18, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +7.11% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Markets Shake Off Fed Jitters, Ride Chip Surge And Iran MOU News

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

U.S. stocks got off to a strong start, with traders looking to bounce back after the prior session’s sell-off, which was triggered by the Fed hinting that another rate hike this year isn’t off the table.

While the Fed held rates steady, its more hawkish tone took some of the wind out of the market’s sails. That said, the committee itself doesn’t seem fully aligned—only about half of its members are still penciling in additional hikes this year, which adds a layer of uncertainty to the outlook.

On the sector side, semiconductors led the charge. Intel jumped 7% after President Trump announced a partnership with Apple to design chips domestically. That news lifted sentiment across the space, with Nvidia up over 1% and Micron rallying around 6%.

The early strength held throughout the day, and the major indexes finished solidly in the green. The Nasdaq led the way, while the Dow once again lagged.

Meanwhile, worries about a more hawkish Fed—and even concerns around potential new leadership at the central bank—took a back seat.

Instead, the spotlight shifted to the newly signed MOU between the U.S. and Iran, which helped lift sentiment and overshadow yesterday’s rate fears, at least for now.

Even with all the talk of broader participation in the rally, the reality is that leadership remains concentrated. The Mag7 outperformed the rest of the S&P 500 this week, helped in part by today’s strong buying activity.

In the bond market, we saw a bit of a split: short-term yields moved higher while the long end eased, with the 30-year falling below 5% and hitting its lowest level in two months.

The dollar also had a strong showing, extending gains after bouncing off its 200-day moving average. Interestingly, gold managed to finish the week unchanged despite selling pressure in the final two sessions.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, was anything but quiet—it swung sharply and ended the week lower after briefly touching $67K.

At the end of the day, this still feels like a narrow market, driven largely by momentum and a single dominant theme: AI, and the demand for power, compute, and memory. That theme continues to power through just about every headwind thrown its way.

So, will the Iran MOU add a second tailwind that helps sustain this rally—or is the market still leaning too heavily on the same old drivers?

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Markets Rattle After Hawkish Fed Surprise Shifts The Mood

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The Dow kicked things off on a strong note, hitting a fresh intraday all-time high as oil prices ticked higher and traders waited on the Fed’s latest decision.

Oil got a bit of a boost after Trump said a deal with Iran still isn’t finalized, warning the U.S. could “go right back to dropping bombs” if it doesn’t meet expectations. That’s a shift from earlier this week when energy prices slid on news of a potential agreement to end the conflict.

On the geopolitical front, there was some cooling in tensions elsewhere, with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Sharif confirming that military operations have stopped, and a formal signing ceremony set for Friday in Switzerland.

Meanwhile, all eyes were on the Fed. This marked the first decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh, and while markets expected rates to stay put in the 3.5%–3.75% range, there was still plenty of nervous anticipation—especially with political pressure building for rate cuts, even as growth and inflation dynamics remain tricky.

Initially, things looked calm. The Fed did hold rates steady as expected. But then came the shift: the central bank scrapped its forward guidance and dropped its easing bias altogether.

Instead, the message turned clearly hawkish, emphasizing its commitment to price stability. With nine policymakers now leaning toward higher rates and at least one hike this year looking likely, markets didn’t take it well.

That was the turning point. What started as a quiet session quickly unraveled, with stocks sliding across the board and metals following suit.

Short-term bond yields spiked, the dollar surged, and gold took a hit—falling back below $4,250. Bitcoin was just as volatile, popping higher at first before reversing sharply and dropping below $64.5K.

All in all, markets are looking a bit fragile right now. Trading volumes are elevated, but liquidity is thin—and that combination can amplify moves, especially as we head into the quieter summer months.

I am pondering: was this just a knee-jerk reaction, or are markets starting to price in a tougher road ahead?

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