ETF Tracker Newsletter For October 23, 2026

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ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

RISK-OFF FRIDAY: MARKETS WORRY ABOUT GROWTH, NOT AI

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

This morning, the market felt a bit like a crowded theater where someone yelled “fire” and everyone headed for the same exit at once.

The Dow was down nearly 700 points early on as concerns over rising oil prices, higher rates, and renewed Middle East tensions spilled well beyond the tech sector.

The Magnificent 7 offered little support, with investors shifting their focus from AI enthusiasm to inflation and energy concerns.

Even the usual defensive hiding spots weren’t much help, as consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare stocks all joined the retreat.

Meanwhile, oil climbed above $100, gold surprisingly lost its shine, and Bitcoin reminded everyone that volatility is still part of the admission price.

One bright spot: bond yields eased enough this week to remind investors why bonds still belong in a diversified portfolio.

The bigger question now is whether falling global yields are signaling a genuine growth scare ahead, or simply a market catching its breath after a long run higher.

Are traders getting an early warning about slowing growth, or is this just another case of the market overreacting before the weekend?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 10/22/2026

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, October 22, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +5.87% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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AI Dreams Meet Capital Reality: Tech Leads Market Lower

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

After the bulls enjoyed a victory lap yesterday, the bears grabbed the microphone today and reminded everyone who’s still paying the bills.

Stocks sold off sharply as fresh concerns surfaced about the massive capital demands of the AI race, raising questions about how much spending investors are willing to fund before seeing meaningful returns.

Tech led the retreat. Meta sank despite strong revenue and upbeat guidance, while AMD, Micron, Nvidia, and CoreWeave all felt the pressure as investors grew uneasy about capital scarcity and rising credit risk.

It seems Wall Street is becoming a little less interested in AI dreams and a little more interested in AI profits.

Adding to the risk-off mood, oil prices jumped on renewed geopolitical tensions involving Iran, while money flowed into bonds, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield back below 5%.

The Dow managed to stay upright, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq took a much harder hit. Even gold and Bitcoin failed to play hero, with both giving back ground.

The big takeaway? The AI story remains compelling, but with capital getting more selective, the market is starting to separate promising investments from expensive science projects.

Could this be the beginning of a healthier, more disciplined phase for AI-related stocks?

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Tech Takes Back The Wheel As AI Optimism Returns

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The bulls found their footing today as technology stocks bounced back into favor.

Much of the enthusiasm centered around Elon Musk’s empire, with SpaceX surging after reporting explosive revenue growth and news that SpaceX and Tesla have formed committees to explore a potential merger.

Tesla joined the rally as investors looked ahead to its earnings report.

The AI trade also got a fresh shot of adrenaline. Strong growth from SpaceX’s AI business helped reignite interest in the sector, while investors now turn their attention to Meta’s earnings for clues on whether the AI story still has plenty of runway left.

After recent concerns about massive AI-related spending, tomorrow’s reaction could be just as important as the numbers themselves.

Elsewhere, bond yields edged higher, diesel prices dropped sharply, the dollar strengthened late in the day, and gold managed a modest gain. Bitcoin, meanwhile, seemed blissfully unaware of the crosscurrents and continued its march toward $85,000.

Today’s message was simple: tech reclaimed leadership, AI optimism returned, and now all eyes are on Meta.

Will tomorrow’s earnings keep the rally fueled, or remind us that expectations have gotten a little ahead of reality?

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A Good Day For The Other 493: Broad Market Outshines Big Tech

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Today was a reminder that the market is a lot bigger than just the Magnificent 7.

Tech tried to lead early, but the Nasdaq’s rally ran out of steam and drifted back toward unchanged by the close.

Instead, the baton was handed to the broader market, with the Dow taking center stage and the S&P 493 comfortably outperforming its mega-cap tech cousins.

Strong earnings from 3M and Northrop Grumman gave investors something tangible to cheer about, while easing oil prices added a little fuel to the bullish mood.

The AI trade remains under scrutiny after last week’s turbulence, but some of the harder-hit names managed to find their footing as the day progressed.

Elsewhere, bond yields were mixed, rate-hike odds eased slightly, Bitcoin pushed back toward the upper end of its recent range, and the dollar weakened.

Oddly enough, gold couldn’t seem to get the memo and slipped despite the softer greenback.

The bigger story may be that investors are beginning to look beyond the AI narrative and reward companies producing actual earnings today rather than promises of earnings tomorrow.

Is this just a healthy broadening of the rally, or the start of a more meaningful shift in market leadership?

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Mag 7 Saves The Day While The Rest Of The Market Waits

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The market found its footing today as investors tiptoed back into tech after last week’s AI-driven selloff.

The Nasdaq led the rebound, with chip stocks doing much of the heavy lifting. Intel jumped 5% following an analyst upgrade, while AMD and Micron joined the party with solid gains of their own.

The bigger story, however, is that the AI trade is entering a new phase.

The conversation seems to be shifting from “How much can companies spend?” to “What kind of return are they getting for all that spending?” That’s a healthy debate, but it has traders a bit more cautious than they were a month ago.

Under the surface, the market wasn’t quite as strong as the headline indexes suggested. Breadth remained weak, sentiment is getting gloomier, and options traders continue loading up on protection.

In other words, the Magnificent Seven were once again carrying more than their share of the furniture.

Meanwhile, rising bond yields, firmer oil prices, and ongoing geopolitical tensions kept traders from getting overly enthusiastic.

Still, considering today marks the 39th anniversary of Black Monday, a modest gain in stocks and only a little market anxiety feels like a pretty good outcome.

The question now is: was today’s bounce the start of a renewed tech rally, or just a breather before traders demand more proof that the AI spending boom still has plenty of runway?

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