Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.
The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (147 vs. 128 current).
DEAD-CAT BOUNCE OR FRESH START? THE MARKET AWAITS ITS NEXT CLUE
[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
Moving the market
Friday brought a little relief after Thursday’s market tantrum.
The Nasdaq bounced back as traders stepped in to scoop up beaten-down chip and AI stocks, helping the tech-heavy index recover some of the ground lost during its sharp slide into correction territory.
The S&P 500 joined the rebound, while the Dow once again played the role of the reluctant participant.
The real story of the week was concentration risk. When a handful of technology giants and semiconductor names carry so much weight, weakness in those stocks can quickly drag the broader indexes lower.
We saw that in dramatic fashion on Thursday, when the Magnificent Seven collectively shed roughly $1 trillion in market value and helped trigger the worst one-day decline since April 2025.
Today’s better-than-expected jobs report added another wrinkle to the outlook. Payrolls grew by 165,000 in October versus expectations for just 59,000, while unemployment slipped to 4.1%.
That’s good news for the economy, but it also revives concerns that the Fed may not be done tightening, which helps explain why bond yields and the dollar moved higher.
Elsewhere, gold and silver gave back some gains today but still finished the week in positive territory. Bitcoin followed the Nasdaq’s lead and climbed back above $76,000.
History suggests Nasdaq corrections often create attractive opportunities over the following three to six months, but the path is rarely smooth. After a week that felt more like a roller coaster than a market, today’s rebound was welcome.
The big question is whether it was simply the dead-cat bounce everyone expected, or the first sign that sellers are finally running out of ammunition.
With next week’s CPI report and another round of earnings on deck, are the markets trying to tell us something?
ETF Data updated through Thursday, November 5, 2026
How to use this StatSheet:
Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.
All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.
If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.
DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs:BUY— effective 5/20/2025
Click on chart to enlarge
This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +4.72% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.
What a difference a day makes. Yesterday’s euphoric rally turned into today’s sharp reality check, with the major indexes giving back gains in a hurry.
The Nasdaq led the retreat as traders continued rotating out of technology and AI-related names and into the relative safety of consumer staples, utilities, and energy.
The AI trade took it on the chin for a second straight session. Nvidia and Broadcom both dropped 9%, Oracle joined the slide, and Qualcomm’s earnings beat was overshadowed by cautious guidance, sending the stock down 13%.
The semiconductor space was hit especially hard, with the SOXX ETF tumbling 11%. Even Tesla, SpaceX, and Nvidia found themselves in double-digit or near double-digit decline territory, proving that market favorites can fall out of fashion just as quickly as last year’s meme stocks.
Away from technology, there were a few signs of resilience. Energy held up well as crude oil reversed course and climbed back above $90 a barrel, while consumer staples and utilities attracted defensive money.
Stocks came out of the gate with conviction today as investors welcomed a decisive Democratic victory in the midterms and, perhaps more importantly, President Trump’s willingness to accept the results. Markets love many things, but certainty may be their favorite.
The combination of a divided Washington, falling oil prices, and easing bond yields gave traders plenty to cheer about. Crude tumbled nearly 8% on hopes of less escalation in Iran, pulling yields and the dollar lower while giving a boost to gold, crypto, and risk assets across the board.
There was also a healthy dose of history in the air. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has been higher one year after every midterm election, with average gains of roughly 15%.
Of course, past performance is not a guarantee of future results, but it’s a statistic bullish investors were more than happy to quote today.
For now, the market seems relieved that politics may be taking a back seat to earnings, growth, and lower energy prices.
The question is: will this post-election rally have staying power, or did the market just enjoy its first sugar rush of a potentially different political backdrop?
Stocks got a lift today as investors tiptoed back into big tech ahead of the midterm elections.
The Nasdaq and S&P 500 pushed higher, with the chipmakers leading the charge. AMD, Broadcom, Nvidia, Micron, and Intel all posted solid gains, suggesting the AI trade still has plenty of believers.
Apple was the notable exception, slipping after a softer margin outlook and disappointing iPad sales. Even market favorites have an occasional bad hair day.
Elsewhere, oil eased on hopes of progress in U.S.-Iran talks, gold pulled back as the dollar strengthened, and Bitcoin finally caught its breath as Binance-related outflow concerns appeared to settle down.
The bigger story, though, remains the election.
Markets generally dislike uncertainty more than bad news, and history suggests that once the votes are counted, investors often breathe a sigh of relief.
Since 1974, the S&P 500 has delivered a median gain of 6% in the three months following midterm elections. The question now is whether this time will rhyme with history, or if the market has a different script in mind.
