Risk-On Mood Returns As Oil Slides And Tech Takes Charge

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks came into the day with a healthy appetite for risk, led once again by the chipmakers.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained ground early and held onto those advances as investors continued piling into AI-related names.

Broadcom was a standout, rising more than 3% after financing details emerged around Anthropic’s technology deal, keeping the AI story firmly in the driver’s seat.

Outside of equities, lower oil prices helped the mood, while bond yields were little changed with the 10-year hovering just below 5% as investors await tomorrow’s Fed decision.

The expectation remains that the Fed will stand pat, although the market is still pricing in a meaningful chance of one more hike before the year is over.

Meanwhile, gold bounced sharply from its recent support level and Bitcoin found buyers near $80,000, suggesting investors weren’t afraid to add a little risk while keeping one foot near the exits.

All in all, it was a broad-based “risk-on” day, but with the Fed up next, was this the start of another leg higher or just a well-dressed waiting game?

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AI Trade Gets A Pulse Check As Anthropic Sparks Tech Rally

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks came out of the gate strong today, led by a rebound in semiconductors and AI-related names after Anthropic’s IPO filing reignited some enthusiasm for the AI trade.

Frankly, the market seemed to need a fresh AI story, much like it needed SpaceX before it. Investors have been talking about this one for ages, and now they finally have something tangible to get excited about.

The filing helped ease concerns that AI spending may be peaking, giving tech a much-needed boost after a rough stretch that left semiconductors deep in correction territory.

Meanwhile, lower oil prices added a tailwind for equities, although crude remains elevated as geopolitical risks haven’t exactly packed their bags.

Elsewhere, bond yields were mixed, silver and Bitcoin lost a little shine, and Brazil reminded investors that politics and markets can be a cruel combination, with some stocks getting absolutely clobbered following the surprise election outcome.

With the Fed decision arriving Wednesday and a likely pause already priced in, the big question is: can today’s AI-fueled optimism turn into something more durable, or was this just a well-timed shot of caffeine for the market?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 10/23/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (140 vs. 142 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For October 23, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

RISK-OFF FRIDAY: MARKETS WORRY ABOUT GROWTH, NOT AI

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

This morning, the market felt a bit like a crowded theater where someone yelled “fire” and everyone headed for the same exit at once.

The Dow was down nearly 700 points early on as concerns over rising oil prices, higher rates, and renewed Middle East tensions spilled well beyond the tech sector.

The Magnificent 7 offered little support, with investors shifting their focus from AI enthusiasm to inflation and energy concerns.

Even the usual defensive hiding spots weren’t much help, as consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare stocks all joined the retreat.

Meanwhile, oil climbed above $100, gold surprisingly lost its shine, and Bitcoin reminded everyone that volatility is still part of the admission price.

One bright spot: bond yields eased enough this week to remind investors why bonds still belong in a diversified portfolio.

The bigger question now is whether falling global yields are signaling a genuine growth scare ahead, or simply a market catching its breath after a long run higher.

Are traders getting an early warning about slowing growth, or is this just another case of the market overreacting before the weekend?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 10/22/2026

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, October 22, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +5.87% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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AI Dreams Meet Capital Reality: Tech Leads Market Lower

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

After the bulls enjoyed a victory lap yesterday, the bears grabbed the microphone today and reminded everyone who’s still paying the bills.

Stocks sold off sharply as fresh concerns surfaced about the massive capital demands of the AI race, raising questions about how much spending investors are willing to fund before seeing meaningful returns.

Tech led the retreat. Meta sank despite strong revenue and upbeat guidance, while AMD, Micron, Nvidia, and CoreWeave all felt the pressure as investors grew uneasy about capital scarcity and rising credit risk.

It seems Wall Street is becoming a little less interested in AI dreams and a little more interested in AI profits.

Adding to the risk-off mood, oil prices jumped on renewed geopolitical tensions involving Iran, while money flowed into bonds, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield back below 5%.

The Dow managed to stay upright, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq took a much harder hit. Even gold and Bitcoin failed to play hero, with both giving back ground.

The big takeaway? The AI story remains compelling, but with capital getting more selective, the market is starting to separate promising investments from expensive science projects.

Could this be the beginning of a healthier, more disciplined phase for AI-related stocks?

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