Rates Spike, Stocks Slide, And Pressure Builds

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks were under pressure right from the open, as a sharp jump in bond yields threw a wrench into the bull market.

Higher rates weighed on the consumer outlook and hit tech stocks particularly hard, taking some of the shine off recent growth momentum.

Traders were also keeping an eye on the oil market after President Trump called off planned strikes on Iran, while continued weakness in chip stocks added to the cautious tone.

The real story, though, was in bonds. The 30‑year Treasury yield pushed above 5.18%, hitting its highest level in nearly 19 years. That move follows last week’s inflation data, which showed price pressures heating up again—partly driven by higher oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions.

Rising rates are starting to ripple through the economy. Higher borrowing costs—from mortgages to credit cards—could slow consumer spending, while also putting pressure on lofty valuations, especially in high‑growth areas like semiconductors.

There’s also growing chatter that the Fed may be behind the curve on inflation, with new Chair Kevin Warsh stepping in later this week. Some analysts are even floating the idea of a rate hike as soon as July—something that would likely add even more pressure to equities and potentially threaten the current bull run.

By the close, higher yields had drained most of the bullish energy out of the market. Stocks finished lower, while the dollar caught a strong bid—pushing above its 200‑day moving average for the first time in over six weeks.

Gold felt the double hit from rising yields and a stronger dollar, bouncing around the $4,500 level before slipping slightly below it. Bitcoin had a choppy session of its own but ultimately finished about where it started.

As for geopolitics, markets seem a bit less reactive to the usual headline swings. While tensions with Iran remain unresolved, traders are starting to take some of the rhetoric in stride, especially with little real progress on negotiations.

At the end of the day, it all keeps circling back to rates—so the big question is: how much higher can yields go before something in the market finally breaks?

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Tech Stumbles While Oil And Yields Take Center Stage

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Stocks pulled back early after last week’s record-setting run, as traders kept a close eye on rising oil prices, bond yields, and the latest developments out of the Middle East.

Oil continued to edge higher, with WTI trading above $105 and Brent hovering around $109, keeping inflation concerns front and center. That’s arriving at a tricky moment for equities—both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq just hit fresh highs last week, and the Dow briefly topped the 50,000 mark before momentum started to fade.

The shift really showed up late last week when rising global bond yields shook confidence. The U.S. 30-year yield pushed to its highest level in about a year, putting pressure on equities—especially tech. The Nasdaq-100 dropped 1.5% Friday, its worst single-day hit since late March, as higher rates took the shine off growth stocks.

Geopolitics aren’t helping either. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain elevated, with negotiations stalled and rhetoric heating up. That’s keeping oil prices supported and adding another layer of uncertainty for markets already dealing with inflation concerns.

Speaking of inflation, last week’s data pretty much slammed the door on any near-term rate cuts. The Fed now has very little flexibility, as the broader macro backdrop just doesn’t support easing anytime soon.

Throughout the session, bond yields stayed choppy but ultimately moved higher, with the 30-year testing above 5.15%—levels we haven’t seen since late 2023.

Meanwhile, the dollar eased back a bit, gold held steady around $4,550, and silver managed to grind slightly higher.

Bitcoin had a rougher ride, swinging sharply and briefly testing $76K—its lowest level since April—before stabilizing.

All in all, between rising yields, elevated oil prices, and nonstop geopolitical headline swings, markets are stuck trying to make sense of a constantly shifting backdrop.

So, the question is: Do stocks need a bigger reset here, or can they shake this off and push back toward new highs?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 05/15/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (221 vs. 199 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For May 15, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

RISING YIELDS AND CHINA DISAPPOINTMENT KNOCK STOCKS LOWER

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Stocks took a step back as a tech sell‑off and a sharp jump in bond yields knocked the wind out of the market’s recent rally.

Adding to the sour mood, the much‑anticipated summit between Presidents Trump and Xi wrapped up without any major policy breakthroughs or meaningful business deals—leaving traders underwhelmed.

While both sides agreed the Strait of Hormuz needs to stay open, the handful of headlines that did come out of Beijing—like the Boeing order news—failed to impress.

At the same time, bond yields surged, with the 30‑year topping 5.1%, its highest level since 2025. That move followed a week of inflation data showing price pressures heating back up, especially with oil prices staying elevated. Rising rates tend to hit high‑growth stocks first, and tech felt it.

The broader concern lurking beneath the surface is market breadth. Stocks have been riding a record‑breaking run fueled by AI excitement, but peel back the layers and it’s clear the gains are being carried by just a handful of mega‑cap tech names.

The widening gap between the Magnificent 7 and the rest of the market has more traders questioning how sturdy this rally really is.

Even with U.S. macro data coming in stronger than expected, stubborn inflation, surging yields, and the “nothing burger” from Beijing were enough to send the bulls packing—at least for the day. Equities finished deep in the red across the board.

Oil prices moved higher after Trump left the China meeting without any meaningful discussion around boosting energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, reigniting worries about potential supply disruptions. Traders also stayed on edge as the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran continues to look fragile.

By week’s end, the S&P 500 managed to close in the green—but only because the Mag 7 did all the heavy lifting. Strip those out, and the S&P 493 actually finished the week in the red.

The dollar logged its second‑best week since November 2024, which weighed on precious metals. Gold found support near $4,500, while silver’s wild swings stole the spotlight—giving back an 11% midweek gain to finish down about 5%.

Bitcoin followed a similar path, briefly testing $82K earlier in the week before sliding back toward $78K.

In the end, all roads still lead back to interest rates—and with this growing gap between yields and equities, something eventually has to give. So, which one moves first?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 05/14/2026

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, May 14, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +5.69% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Semis Shine As Markets Ride China Momentum

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks came out strong early, with the Dow pushing back above the 50,000-mark helped by upbeat earnings from Cisco and encouraging headlines out of the U.S.–China meeting.

Cisco was a standout, jumping 17% intraday after beating expectations on both earnings and guidance, while also announcing plans to cut nearly 4,000 jobs. That surge gave the Dow a solid boost.

Nvidia added to the momentum, climbing more than 4% after reports that the U.S. cleared several Chinese firms to purchase its H200 chips—though shipments haven’t started yet.

Geopolitics also played a role. Iran was front and center during the Trump–Xi summit, with both leaders agreeing the Strait of Hormuz must remain open—easing, at least temporarily, due to fears around global energy supply.

Even with lingering concerns about higher oil prices weighing on parts of the market, tech stocks—especially semiconductors like Nvidia and Micron—continued to lead the charge.

Positive signals out of Beijing, combined with solid retail sales data, helped keep the rally intact. The “Magnificent 7” once again outperformed, though market breadth showed signs of improvement compared to recent sessions.

In the background, bond yields were choppy for most of the day before spiking late in the session, giving the dollar a lift. Gold held steady, while silver cooled off slightly but found support around the $84 level.

Bitcoin joined the risk-on move, climbing back toward $82K and showing signs of moving in sync with tech stocks again.

For now, the China summit seems to have taken some immediate pressure off the Middle East situation—but given how quickly headlines can shift, that calm could be short-lived.

So, the real question is: does this rally have legs, or is it just another headline-driven bounce?

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