Oil, Inflation, And Geopolitics Send Stocks Searching For Answers

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks came out of the gate on the wrong foot and never really found their balance, as traders spent the day weighing escalating Middle East tensions against this week’s all-important inflation reports.

Rising oil prices stole the spotlight, with crude extending its rally and reminding everyone that inflation may not be quite finished with us yet.

That puts Thursday’s PPI and Friday’s CPI reports squarely in focus. A hotter-than-expected CPI number could complicate the Fed’s path and reignite rate hike concerns, which is exactly what traders seem to be pricing for at the moment.

Adding to the list of worries, fresh trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada didn’t do sentiment any favors.

By the closing bell, stocks were firmly in the red as higher oil prices and rising bond yields kept pressure on risk assets.

The dollar drifted modestly lower, while bitcoin took investors on its usual roller-coaster ride before finishing below Friday’s close.

It was one of those sessions where caution was in demand and optimism felt a little overpriced.

The big question now: will inflation data calm investors’ nerves, or have the bears finally regained control of the narrative?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 09/04/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (223 vs. 219 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For September 4, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

THE FED JUST GOT MORE DATA… AND MORE REASONS TO STAY TOUGH

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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This morning’s jobs report was the story of the day. August payrolls came in at 162,000, far above expectations, reinforcing the view that the labor market remains surprisingly resilient.

That was enough to push bond yields higher and nudge Fed rate hike odds upward ahead of the September meeting.

At first, stocks didn’t like the idea of a more hawkish Fed and sold off. But by the closing bell, the market had largely steadied itself, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finishing little changed on the week.

Energy stocks were the standout winners, helped by record diesel prices that are reigniting concerns about inflation’s second act.

Elsewhere, the dollar took a hit, gold had a rough week, and Bitcoin briefly climbed above $82,000 before the jobs data reminded traders that interest rates still matter.

The bigger takeaway? Talk of stagflation is creeping back into the conversation as higher energy costs collide with signs of slower industrial growth.

Now, all eyes turn to next week’s CPI report. Today’s jobs number grabbed the headlines, but CPI could ultimately decide whether the Fed reaches for another rate hike or keeps its powder dry.

So, was today’s market reaction just a warm-up act before the main event?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 09/03/2026

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, September 3, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +8.36% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Lower Yields Light A Fire Under Equities, Gold, And Crypto

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The market finally found an excuse to smile today. Stocks rallied sharply as Treasury yields backed away from their recent highs after Fed Governor Waller suggested he’d be inclined to support holding rates steady, assuming upcoming inflation data doesn’t throw a curveball.

That comment was enough to shift the mood on Wall Street. Rate hike expectations eased, bond yields moved lower, and traders suddenly looked a lot more comfortable putting money back to work. A stronger yen also helped reinforce the decline in yields, giving equities an added tailwind despite oil prices remaining stubbornly high.

The weaker dollar added another layer to the story. Gold jumped 2.5% and reclaimed the $4,500 level, silver matched the move, and bitcoin decided subtlety was overrated, surging 5% to its highest close since mid-May above $81,000.

Of course, today’s optimism now faces its first real test tomorrow morning. With the jobs report and unemployment data on deck, the market may soon find out whether today’s rally was the start of something bigger or just a well-timed dress rehearsal.

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A Softer Dollar, Stronger Metals, And A Market Rebound

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Treasury yields finally took a breather after their recent sprint to multiyear highs, and stocks were happy to take the invitation, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all snapping their three-day losing streaks.

The bigger story hasn’t changed, though. Oil remains parked around the $90-mark, geopolitical tensions are keeping energy traders on edge, and the Fed looks less inclined to shrug off higher energy costs than it did a few months ago. That’s keeping valuation pressure firmly in place.

One bright spot today was the weaker dollar, which gave precious metals a tailwind. Gold resumed its march toward new highs, while silver and copper joined the celebration. Bitcoin, meanwhile, seemed perfectly content to watch from the bleachers and do absolutely nothing.

For now, the market’s message is pretty straightforward: lower yields helped stocks catch their breath, but higher energy prices are still the elephant in the room. The question is, which gives way first… oil or investor optimism?

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