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BITCOIN OVER $90K, METALS FLAT – SHORT SQUEEZE POWERS SMALL CAPS
[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
Moving the market
The new year kicked off with a “mixed bag” vibe that pretty much summed up the whole session.
Big-tech names started strong overnight but got hammered as the day wore on, flipping from solid gains to afternoon losses.
The Mag 7 basket took the biggest beating, while the other 493 S&P names (and the broad market) held up way better—breadth was super positive, helped by a massive short squeeze.
The Nasdaq summed up the chaos perfectly: up 1.2% right out of the gate, only to fade all day and close down a hair at -0.03%—its low of the session. Small caps were the real winners, and the S&P 500 scraped together a last-hour push to finish slightly green.
Bond yields and the dollar climbed, Bitcoin had a solid day (broke above $90K and hit near 3-week highs), but metals rode a rollercoaster—rallied overnight, touched highs like gold at$4,400, then gave most of it back to close basically flat.
All told, the classic “Santa Claus rally” (last five days of the year + first two of the new) didn’t really show up this time—U.S. stocks lagged global peers during what’s usually a strong stretch.
Stocks pulled back a bit today, extending a three-session losing streak, but the declines stayed pretty mild.
The S&P 500 still locked in a solid 16.8% gain for the year—its third straight double-digit win. The Nasdaq rode the AI wave to +20.8%, while the Dow lagged a touch at +13% (not as much tech juice).
But the real champions? Precious metals crushed it: silver exploded +143% (its best year since the ’70s), and gold delivered a hefty +64%.
We’ve come a long way from that scary April rout after Trump’s big tariff announcement—the S&P flirted with bear territory (down almost 19% from its February peak and dipping below 5,000). Today’s dip feels like a gentle exhale after that comeback.
The recent softness is a little eyebrow-raising, though, since we’re smack in the middle of the “Santa Claus rally” window (last five days of the year + first two of the next)—usually a nice year-end gift.
Plus, the late pullback in metals came from exchanges hiking margin requirements, forcing leveraged players to liquidate, and creating some forced selling.
Bitcoin had a tougher finish: hit $126K in October but lost steam and closed the year down about 6%—its worst since 2022.
Looking ahead, the macro setup for 2026 still looks supportive—global growth around 2.8%, Fed easing, and big capex spending—but valuations have never been this stretched.
Stocks could grind another double-digit year, but a lot of folks think we might spend time chopping sideways while earnings catch up.
Happy New Year—here’s to a healthy, prosperous 2026!
Continue reading…
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy”Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
It felt like most traders checked out early for New Year’s—bullish energy was basically nowhere to be found.
Pretty much everything drifted lower, with the major indexes posting their fourth straight daily loss. Even the metals sector, which has been our hero all year, got dragged down with the tide.
No big surprise, our TTIs headed south too, giving back a bit of ground. That said, they closed the year still comfortably in positive territory, so our overall bullish outlook stays fully intact heading into 2026.
This is how we closed 12/31/2025:
Domestic TTI: +5.56% above its M/A (prior close +6.47%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +9.57% above its M/A (prior close +10.03%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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The market was in full “where do we go from here?” mode all morning—wandering aimlessly after the S&P 500 just posted back-to-back losses, mostly thanks to tech getting hammered again.
Investors kept trimming some of this year’s big winners, with Nvidia down over 1% and Palantir sliding 2.4%.
By the close, the major indexes all settled modestly lower, with small caps feeling the most pain.
The bright spot (as usual lately) was the metals sector. They bounced right back into the green: silver led with a strong +4.5% rebound, copper posted a solid +3.2%, and gold edged a little higher.
Bond yields basically yawned and went nowhere—the Fed Minutes dropped without much fanfare, and 2026 rate-cut bets stayed pretty steady.
Bitcoin squeezed out a small gain but couldn’t hold its intraday highs around $89K—faded a bit in the afternoon, classic crypto.
Just one more trading day left in 2025 before we flip the calendar and see what fresh surprises the new year brings.
After last week’s record highs and Santa Claus vibes, the market woke up grumpy.
Stocks opened lower and stayed that way, with tech taking the biggest beating. The AI trade cooled off again: Nvidia dropped almost 2% (giving back a chunk of last week’s 5%+ pop), and Palantir, Meta, Oracle, and AMD all bled too.
The real drama was in the shiny stuff. Silver had touched $80/oz overnight for the first time ever but got absolutely smacked today—down about 7% in the SLV ETF, erasing most of Friday’s gains.
Gold fared a little better: hit $4,550 overnight, then fell 4.4% to around $4,350. Both pulled back to levels we saw just 3-4 days ago—not catastrophic given their monster 2025 runs (silver +150%, gold +62%).
Bitcoin did its classic weekend pump-and-dump: spiked to $90K, then plunged below $87K in hours.
The major indexes all closed red, wiping out a good chunk of that late-December “Santa Claus” rally for now. Bond yields eased, and the dollar perked up a touch.
ZeroHedge dropped an interesting stat: every time silver has fallen more than -6% from a 1-year high, it’s been higher a week later—6 out of 6 times.
Traders came back from Christmas ready to buy, pushing the S&P 500 to a fresh record high in early trading.
The day itself was pretty sleepy—major indexes basically trod water and closed little changed—but the week told a happier story.
The S&P gained over 1%, the Dow and Nasdaq both up more than 1% too, putting us on track for the fourth weekly win in five. Classic post-Christmas quiet, but still grinding higher.
We’re smack in the middle of that historically sweet seasonal window, so everyone’s keeping an eye out for the famous “Santa Claus rally” (the last five trading days of the year plus the first two of January).
Bond yields finished the week flat, but the dollar had its worst week since June and closed at October lows. Today’s real fireworks? Once again in the metals corner:
– Gold ETF up a “modest” 1.16%
– Copper ripped +4.71% to a new record
– Silver stole the show with a massive +9.05% surge—another all-time high
That combo gave our portfolios a nice lift even while stocks took a nap. Bitcoin did its usual pump-and-dump routine and ended the week around $87K.
Next week we wrap up December and 2025 with another four-day session (New Year’s Day off). Key data on deck: FOMC minutes, a bunch of housing reports, and Chicago PMI.
The day started a little wobbly—delayed Q3 GDP data finally dropped and came in hot at 4.3% (way above the 3.2% guess).
That had everyone pausing to wonder if the Fed might slow-walk those early-2026 rate cuts. Futures traders nudged up the odds of steady rates in January and March a touch, but they’re still betting on two cuts by year-end.
Early nerves turned into afternoon buying, though. The indexes shook off the slump, with the Nasdaq leading the charge. The S&P 500 hit a fresh record high, and all the majors locked in their fourth straight green day. Nice way to head into the holidays.
Bond yields crept higher (but backed off the peaks), the dollar sank to October lows, and that was rocket fuel for metals:
Gold got within a whisker of $4,500, silver blasted through $71 (though it stopped shy of $72), and copper punched another record high. Bitcoin lagged a bit and couldn’t crack $88K.
Uncertainty’s still hanging around—it’s just been shoved to the back burner while seasonal tailwinds take the wheel.
We’re enjoying the calm ride for now, but volatility’s always lurking in the shadows.
