Bitcoin Booms, Metals Surge, And The Dow Just Can’t Keep Up

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The day started off with the Dow dragging its feet while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq made modest gains.

What gave the market a bit of a boost? President Trump announced a finalized trade deal with Vietnam, which helped lift sentiment—at least for a moment.

But then came the ADP private payroll report, and it wasn’t pretty. The private sector lost 33,000 jobs last month—marking the first decline since March 2023. Analysts were expecting a gain of 100,000. Ouch.

Still, in classic Wall Street fashion, bad news turned into good news. With the Macro Data Surprise Index also taking a dive, traders started betting that the Fed might ease up on interest rates. That sparked a short squeeze, and most major indexes (except the Dow) ended the day in the green, with Small Caps leading the charge.

Traders also kept an eye on Trump’s tax-and-spending bill, which squeaked through the Senate and now heads back to the House. Some GOP holdouts are still making noise, so it’s not a done deal yet.

Elsewhere, bond yields dipped early but climbed later in the day. The dollar stayed flat.

Precious metals like gold, silver, platinum, and palladium all rallied, and copper jumped 2.12%. Not to be left out, Bitcoin surged toward its all-time high, fueled by strong ETF inflows and growing bullish sentiment.

And let’s not forget the big picture—global liquidity is still pointing to higher prices ahead.

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Tech Slips, Dow Lifts: A Choppy Start To July

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The first trading day of July came in with mixed vibes. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq stumbled out of the gate, while the Dow decided to do its own thing and posted some early gains.

Tesla took a 4% hit after former President Trump stirred the pot on social media, suggesting that DOGE should investigate the government subsidies Elon Musk’s companies have received. This seemed like a clapback after Musk called Trump’s latest “big, beautiful bill” completely insane and destructive. So yeah, the drama continues.

Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke at a European banking forum in Portugal, saying the Fed probably would’ve cut rates again by now—if it weren’t for those pesky tariffs. He didn’t offer any timeline, just the usual “we’ll see what the data says” line. Not exactly the clarity markets were hoping for.

The weakness in the S&P and Nasdaq stuck around through the close, and Trump’s comment about not extending the tariff pause past July 9th didn’t help. Even a big short-squeeze couldn’t lift the Mag7 tech giants, though it did give the broader market a bit of a boost.

Bond yields climbed, rate cut hopes dipped, and both hard and soft economic data came in weak. The dollar had a wild ride but ended flat. Gold bounced back nicely, reclaiming its 50-day moving average after yesterday’s quarter-end drop. Bitcoin slipped alongside tech but found support around $106K.

So, with a shaky start to July, the big question is: Will the market stick to its usual seasonal script and rally over the next couple of weeks—or is this year going to break the pattern?

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June Ends On A High Note As Markets Shake Off Trade Jitters

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks kicked off the last day of June on a positive note, riding the wave of last week’s bullish momentum.

That upward push got an extra boost when Canada backed off its digital services tax to smooth over trade talks with the U.S.—a quick reversal after President Trump abruptly ended discussions just three days earlier. So, that mini trade war? It lasted all of 72 hours.

Investors are still waiting to see if any real trade deals materialize before the July 9 deadline, when Trump’s 90-day tariff pause runs out. Secretary Bessent hinted that while some countries are negotiating “in good faith,” the U.S. won’t hesitate to snap back to earlier tariff levels if talks stall. No pressure, right?

Overall, June turned into a recovery month. Stocks, bonds, Bitcoin, and crude oil all moved higher, while the dollar and U.S. macro data slipped—ironically, that weaker data helped fuel hopes for rate cuts, which gave stocks another lift.

For the year so far, the Nasdaq leads the pack with a +7.6% gain, followed by the S&P 500. Small Caps and Transport stocks didn’t fare as well. But gold? It’s still the top performer, outshining all major equity indexes by a wide margin (+25.9%)

Bond yields wrapped up the quarter mixed, and the dollar just had its worst quarter since late 2022. Gold, after a strong start to the year, has been treading water for the past two months.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin had a stellar quarter, rising every month—even if June’s gains were more modest, it still notched a record monthly close.

So, with June in the books and momentum still alive… will the bulls keep charging, or are the bears just catching their breath?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 06/27/2025

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (206 vs. 235 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For June 27, 2025

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ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

MARKETS CLIMB THE WALL OF WORRY—BUT FOR HOW LONG?

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The markets kicked off the day riding yesterday’s momentum, with the S&P 500 reclaiming its February record.

Optimism was fueled by hopes of progress on trade deals—especially after Commerce Secretary Lutnick confirmed a finalized trade framework with China, which Beijing backed up. The administration also hinted that agreements with 10 other major partners are just around the corner.

Adding fuel to the rally were gains in AI heavyweights like Microsoft and Nvidia. Microsoft even hit a new all-time high before settling near flat. Despite a backdrop of shaky economic data, rising debt, and ongoing global tensions, investors seem to be climbing the proverbial “wall of worry.”

But the ride wasn’t all smooth. Around midday, markets took a sharp dive after Trump abruptly ended trade talks with Canada over their new Digital Services Tax targeting U.S. tech firms.

That rattled sentiment—briefly. Dip buyers swooped in during the final hour, lifting the indexes back into the green. By the close, all major indexes were up for the week, with the Nasdaq leading the charge.

Interestingly, weak macro data (housing, income, spending, and inflation) actually helped, as it boosted hopes for rate cuts in 2025. Bond yields fell, the dollar slipped, and gold dropped for the second week in a row. Crude oil also plunged following the official end of the Israel-Iran war.

Bitcoin stayed flat today but still logged its best week in nearly two months, briefly crossing $108K.

So, with markets brushing off bad news and charging ahead—are we seeing real strength, or just a calm before the next storm?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 06/26/2025

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, June 26, 2025

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +2.32% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our new holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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