1. Moving the market

Markets picked up where they left off yesterday, building on modest gains despite a flat start as traders kept a close eye on potential developments in U.S.-China trade talks.** 

However, not everything was working in the bulls’ favor. The OECD trimmed its U.S. growth forecast to 1.6% from 2.2%, casting a bit of a shadow over the day’s optimism. That news initially pushed bond yields lower, but they later reversed sharply as hopes for rate cuts began to fade.

Trade tensions remained a key theme, with negotiations between the U.S. and China reportedly hitting more turbulence. Still, some analysts remain upbeat about the market’s short-term outlook, pointing to seasonal trends—historically, the next six weeks tend to be among the strongest stretches of the year, rivaling even the fourth quarter.

On the data front, the JOLTS report surprised to the upside, showing more job openings than expected. That, along with a boost in retail sentiment, helped fuel a midday rally and triggered a short squeeze that pushed markets even higher.

Elsewhere, the dollar rebounded from last week’s lows, putting pressure on gold, which gave back some recent gains. Bitcoin, true to form, continued its rollercoaster ride—up, down, and back up again.

All eyes are now on Friday’s jobs report. With job openings on the rise, the big question is: Will a strong payroll number be good news for stocks—or will it spook investors worried about fewer rate cuts?

1. Moving the market

Global trade tensions had markets on edge early in the day, with major indexes slipping into the red right out of the gate.

The pressure came after China pushed back on U.S. claims that it had violated a temporary trade deal—blaming Washington for not holding up its end. The back-and-forth between the two powers made it clear that negotiations are heading in the wrong direction.

Meanwhile, tensions flared between the U.S. and the European Union after Trump announced a plan to double steel tariffs to 50%. The EU warned that this move could inject more uncertainty into the global economy and drive up consumer costs on both sides of the Atlantic.

Despite the rocky start, markets found their footing. A short squeeze kicked in early and helped lift the major indexes into the green by the close.

In the bond market, yields climbed as hopes for a 2025 rate cut faded. The dollar slipped to its lowest level since July 2023.

Gold had a standout day—jumping 2.73% and breaking out of its downtrend channel—while silver surged an impressive 5.3%. Bitcoin stayed rangebound but held support around the $104K mark.

ZeroHedge shared an updated global liquidity chart (with a 3-month lag), hinting that if history repeats, bitcoin could be on a path toward $200K.

So, with all this volatility and momentum, are we looking at the start of a summer breakout—or just another head fake?

1. Moving the market

Nvidia lit the fuse this morning with a strong earnings report, but the rally didn’t quite explode.

 While the chip giant’s results gave markets an early boost, excitement faded as traders turned their attention to trade policy uncertainty.

A federal court ruling struck down Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs, saying he overstepped his authority—raising fresh doubts about how future trade negotiations might unfold.

Some analysts brushed it off as a “nothingburger,” and the market seemed to agree, ending the day with modest gains.

Looking at the broader picture, the April/May short squeeze appears to be losing steam.

Nvidia gave back more than half of its post-earnings pop, bond yields dipped (with the 7-year hitting a two-week low), and rate-cut expectations shifted—up for 2025, down for 2026.

The dollar softened, gold flirted with $3,350 but didn’t quite get there, and Bitcoin stumbled after an early surge, sliding toward $106K despite continued ETF inflows.

So, the big question now is: will tomorrow’s PCE inflation reading be soft enough to give the market a fresh reason to rally?