1. Moving the market

The market’s back-and-forth news action continued, but this time stocks came out on top.

Over the weekend, Trump announced he’d delay 50% of the planned tariffs on European imports until July 9th—something the head of the European Commission had requested.

That news lit a fire under futures, and the momentum carried through the regular session as traders and algorithms piled in.

Consumer confidence also got a serious lift, jumping to 98.0—well above the expected 86.0. A more relaxed tone in U.S.-China trade talks likely helped boost the mood.

Looking ahead, earnings from Nvidia, Macy’s, and Costco are on deck. So far, over 95% of S&P 500 companies have reported, with 78% beating expectations—a solid showing.

Even with falling home prices and weak Durable Goods orders, the U.S. macro data finally had a “net good” day, according to ZeroHedge—the first in five weeks. Short sellers got squeezed, giving the broader market another push.

Bond yields dipped, with the 10-year falling nearly 7 basis points to 4.5%, and the 30-year sliding below 5%.

Meanwhile, the dollar rallied alongside stocks and bonds, which took some shine off gold—though it held support at $3,300. Bitcoin, after a shaky start, bounced back and reclaimed the $110K mark.

Trade policy is still a wild card, but for now, the Conference Board’s “Uncertainty” index took a sharp dive.

Could this be a turning point—or just another blip?

1. Moving the market

Early trading saw two of the major indexes fluctuating near their unchanged lines, while the Nasdaq stood out with a clear upward move, reflecting pockets of bullish sentiment.

The market’s attention was firmly on the passage of a sweeping tax and spending bill in the House, which aims to lower taxes and boost military spending but is projected to add trillions to the U.S. deficit over the next decade.

The 30-year bond yield responded by climbing to its highest level since October 2023, as investors weighed the implications of higher government borrowing and fiscal expansion.

The bill, which now heads to the Senate, has sparked debate among lawmakers and analysts. While some argue that the tax cuts and increased spending could offer a short-term boost to the economy, many warn that the resulting surge in deficits will likely stoke inflation and drive bond yields even higher, making bonds less attractive as an investment.

This uncertainty, combined with ongoing questions about the impact of tariff policies, contributed to early weakness in equities.

Midday, the indexes attempted a rebound but quickly hit resistance, with both the Dow and S&P 500 ending the session flat despite bond yields easing off their highs.

Gold’s initial rally faded by the close, while Bitcoin saw significant volatility—setting a record but falling short of the $112,000 mark.

As noted by ZeroHedge, much of the recent Bitcoin movement has been driven by institutional investors, with the retail crowd largely sitting on the sidelines. This dynamic raises a key question:

Can renewed retail participation be ignited again, or will institutions continue to dominate trading activity?

1. Moving the market

The markets opened on a weak note as rising bond yields and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. budget bill weighed on sentiment.

Traders remained focused on developments in Washington, where Republican leaders are working to finalize a bill aimed at lowering taxes while expanding deductions for state and local taxes. While potentially beneficial for taxpayers, the proposal could worsen fiscal deficits and reverse recent efforts at budgetary restraint.

Analysts expressed concern that the bill may do little to curb inflation or reduce national debt. These worries were reflected in the bond market, where yields climbed, pushing the 30-year back above the 5% mark. Confidence was further shaken by a poorly received 20-year bond auction, which reignited fears about bond market stability and drove yields even higher.

The spike in yields derailed a budding rally in equities. The major indexes reversed sharply into the close, with even the previously resilient “Magnificent Seven” stocks turning red. For the second consecutive day, retail dip buyers were notably absent—a trend highlighted by ZeroHedge.

As interest rates rose, the U.S. dollar weakened, gold reclaimed the $3,300 level, and Bitcoin surged to a new high of $109,500 before pulling back.

One analyst suggested that if Bitcoin continues to track global liquidity trends, it could reach $170,000 by August.

That’s a bold call—could he be right, or is this a case of irrational exuberance?