Weak Economic Data Keeps Markets In Check

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the Markets

While the Dow managed to close in the green for the 3rd straight session in a row, the broader market sagged a little based on weak retail shares that had the sector (XRT) giving back -0.72%. A couple of other numbers did absolutely nothing to instill confidence in an already declining economy.

Consumer prices jumped 0.4% MoM in August, which was the biggest spike since the beginning of 2017. YoY, the CPI still remains below the Fed’s goal of +1.9%, but that may very well change. Adding insult to injury were real hourly earnings, which plunged 0.6% last month—not exactly a combination that promotes the warm fuzzies when it comes to consumer spending.

In regards to our ETF holdings, gains and losses were just about equally weighted. Leading the pack were Aerospace & Defense (ITA) with +0.52% with Semiconductors taking second place with +0.44%. Closing modestly in the red were Transportations (IYT) and SmallCaps (SCHA) with -0.33% and -0.12% respectively.

Interest rates remained unchanged, but the 20-year Bond (TLT) managed to eke out a gain of +0.41% after 3 days of losses. The US Dollar (UUP) bucked its 3-day uptrend and gave back -0.29% while Gold (GLD) rose +0.44%.

  1. ETFs in the Spotlight (updated for 2017)

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified and sector ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Saturday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

The below table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

For hundreds of ETF choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.

Year to date, here’s how the 2017 candidates have fared so far:

Again, the %M/A column above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines, while the trailing sell stops are being tracked in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.

  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) were mixed with only minor changes.

Here’s how we closed 9/14/2017:

Domestic TTI: +2.77% (last close +2.86%)—Buy signal effective 4/4/2016

International TTI: +7.20% (last close +7.08%)—Buy signal effective 7/19/2016

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as my advisory clients, own some of the ETFs listed in the above table. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.

About Ulli Niemann

Ulli Niemann is the publisher of "The ETF Bully" and is a Registered Investment Advisor. Learn more
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