Lowest Volume Since 2001; Dow Ekes Out A Record Close

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
  1. Moving the Markets

The Dow continued with its 9th record close in a row, which is its longest streak since February. The S&P and Nasdaq ended the day higher as well with the Nasdaq leading the pack with +0.51%. However, it was Semiconductors (SMH), part of the 10 ETFs in the Spotlight, which took top billing with its chest pounding performance of +1.76%.

Helping matters again was the VIX, which got pounded back below 10 in order to assure a “green” closing of the S&P 500. SmallCaps (SCHA) were held in check but added +0.16%, while the Emerging Funds (SCHE) danced to the tune of their own drummer with a solid gain of +0.64%.

Interest rates were fairly docile and traded in a tight range with the 10-year yield dropping 1 basis point to 2.26%. The US Dollar (UUP) slipped, rallied and pulled back but ended up losing only a scant -0.04%. Gold followed a similar pattern, found support at its 100-day M/A and closed just about unchanged.

  1. ETFs in the Spotlight (updated for 2017)

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified and sector ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Saturday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

The below table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

For hundreds of ETF choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.

Year to date, here’s how the 2017 candidates have fared so far:

Again, the %M/A column above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines, while the trailing sell stops are being tracked in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.

  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) headed north by a small margin.

Here’s how we closed 8/7/2017:

Domestic TTI: +3.15% (last close +3.03%)—Buy signal effective 4/4/2016

International TTI: +8.09% (last close +7.92%)—Buy signal effective 7/19/2016

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as my advisory clients, own some of the ETFs listed in the above table. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.

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Comments 2

  1. Hey, Uli

    May I quote you from today’s post?

    Helping matters again was the VIX, which got pounded back below 10 in order to assure a “green” closing of the S&P 500.

    Will you state openly that you do or do not believe there is some sort of conspiracy manipulating the S&P 500 as implied in the quoted statement?

    Scary stuff!

    Smokey
    8/7/17

  2. All markets are manipulated with sophisticate computer algos. It started back in the Reagan administration with the creation of the PPT (Plunge Protection Team) to shore up the markets. Google the term to familiarize yourself with it. It’s much more sophisticated nowadays due to advances in technology.

    Ulli…

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