Dow Slips For 2nd Straight Day

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the Markets

Yesterday’s slippage continued early this morning, but dip buyers stepped in encouraged by a NT Times story alleging that Trump’s ‘Fire and Fury’ words were his own and not US policy. During the last hour, the whipping boy of the year, AKA the VIX, was spanked again and while helping the indexes recover, they fell short of the intended goal, namely to cross back above the unchanged line.

With geopolitical uncertainty in full swing, it was no surprise to see gold rally solidly by adding +1.53%. In regards to equity ETFs, we saw mainly red numbers with SmallCaps (SCHA) surrendering -0.75%, closely followed by MidCaps (SCHM) with -0.53%. Even the Emerging Markets (SCHE) were unable to mount a rally and gave back -0.82%. Eking out a tiny gain were Dividend ETFs (SCHD) with +0.04%; Transportations (IYT) closed unchanged.

While FANG stocks continued their journey south, Apple scored a new record high and gained +0.61%. The VIX headed north again and broke above the 12 level, and above its 200-day M/A, which is quite a change from its recent all-time low just below 9. If this trend is sustained, equities will eventually be negatively affected. Bonds were the beneficiary of this uncertainty as yields dropped and the 30-year bond rallied to add +0.55%. The US dollar (UUP) was fairly docile, traded sideways and closed down -0.08%.

  1. ETFs in the Spotlight (updated for 2017)

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified and sector ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Saturday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

The below table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

For hundreds of ETF choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.

Year to date, here’s how the 2017 candidates have fared so far:

Again, the %M/A column above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines, while the trailing sell stops are being tracked in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.

  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) again slipped as the trend was predominantly sideways.

Here’s how we closed 8/9/2017:

Domestic TTI: +3.03% (last close +3.09%)—Buy signal effective 4/4/2016

International TTI: +7.36% (last close +7.92%)—Buy signal effective 7/19/2016

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as my advisory clients, own some of the ETFs listed in the above table. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.

About Ulli Niemann

Ulli Niemann is the publisher of "The ETF Bully" and is a Registered Investment Advisor. Learn more
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