ETF Tracker Newsletter For June 2, 2017

ETF Tracker StatSheet


[Chart courtesy of]

  1. Moving the Markets

After yesterday’s euphoric reaction to ADP’s private sector hiring report, reality set in this morning when the BLS released the May jobs report showing that only a disappointing 138k jobs were added in May, which was far below the estimated number of 185k. To add insult to injury, April’s chest pounding number of 211k was revised substantially lower to only 174k. Those numbers suggest that the Fed’s “evidence,” that the current economic slowdown was just “transitory,” blew up in smoke. Even March’s payrolls were revised down from 79k to 50k.

These figures alone should have sent the market into a corrective spiral, but no, in this new normal environment, any news is good for equities and up we went without looking back, allowing the major indexes to add to yesterday’s gains by making new all-time highs.

Then we saw some of these headlines:

  • Retail carnage continues as sector loses jobs for fourth straight month
  • Full-time Jobs Tumble by 367,000; biggest drop in three years
  • JPM: There is a cloud hanging over the equity rally, but stocks don’t seem to mind (for now)
  • Bof A: The “QE Monster” only ends when “The Wall Street Bubble” finally shocks the Fed
  • Deutsche Bank trader admits to rigging precious metals markets

None of these were exactly soothing, but there appeared to be simply no way today to bring the markets down or keep them from scoring new highs. Macro data along with hard and soft data had an ugly weak with soft data sinking to a 6-month low.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury collapsed to 2.15%, its lowest since the election, while the Dollar index (UUP) lost another -0.48%, a low which was last seen the beginning of October 2016. That helped gold continue its rally, and the metal is now honing in on the $1,300 level again.

  1. ETFs in the Spotlight (updated for 2017)

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified and sector ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Saturday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

The below table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

For hundreds of ETF choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.

Year to date, here’s how the 2017 candidates have fared so far:

Again, the %M/A column above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines, while the trailing sell stops are being tracked in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.

  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) followed the major indexes and moved deeper into bullish territory.

Here’s how we closed 6/2/2017:

Domestic TTI: +4.19% (last close +4.03%)—Buy signal effective 4/4/2016

International TTI: +8.94% (last close +8.57%)—Buy signal effective 7/19/2016

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as my advisory clients, own some of the ETFs listed in the above table. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.



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About Ulli Niemann

Ulli Niemann is the publisher of "The ETF Bully" and is a Registered Investment Advisor. Learn more
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