Waiting For Uncertainty To Pass

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the Markets

An early rally attempt lost steam again late in the session with today’s spoiler being Secretary of State Tillerson, who took center stage and reversed his view from last week that the US had no interest in removing the Syrian president to now beating the war drums and announcing “that steps are underway to remove Assad,” and that the US is “considering an appropriate response to the Syrian government’s alleged use of chemical weapons.” Keep in mind, the emphasis is on “alleged.”

That took the starch out of any upward momentum, however, the major indexes managed to eke out a tiny gain. The 10-year Treasury yield went sideways and closed down 2 points or -0.85% hovering at a crucial support level, while Financials (XLF) gained +0.64% but remain stuck below their 50-day M/A.

The US dollar managed to squeeze out a gain for the 3rd day in a row as uncertainty remained high in regards to the outcome of Trump’s meeting with the Chinese president, which could have a dramatic effect on the dollar. Additional, we are waiting for Friday’s March employment report. Expectations are high due to the recent strong numbers released by ADP.

  1. ETFs in the Spotlight (updated for 2017)

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified and sector ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Saturday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

The below table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

For hundreds of ETF choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.

Year to date, here’s how the 2017 candidates have fared so far:

Again, the %M/A column above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines, while the trailing sell stops are being tracked in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.

  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) managed a slight gain as an early rally reversed towards the end of the session.

Here’s how we closed 4/6/2017:

Domestic TTI: +2.37% (last close +2.27%)—Buy signal effective 4/4/2016

International TTI: +5.16% (last close +5.09%)—Buy signal effective 7/19/2016

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as my advisory clients, own some of the ETFs listed in the above table. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.

About Ulli Niemann

Ulli Niemann is the publisher of "The ETF Bully" and is a Registered Investment Advisor. Learn more
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