Energy Provides Support For The Bulls

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the Markets

Finally, the energy sector showed some signs of life with the widely followed XLE gaining +1.3% for the day while barely crawling back above its 200-day M/A by a fraction. XLE has been in a solid downtrend since early December 2016. Oil gave an assist as well by rebounding +2.15%. More help for the bulls came from the consumer sector (XLY), which added +0.60% for the day after bouncing of its 50-day M/A three days ago, but it’s too early to tell if that is the continuation of the recent bullish trend or just a dead cat bounce.

The major indexes started the day below the unchanged line but, as we’ve seen recently, were magically pushed higher throughout the day closing mixed with the Nasdaq leading the pack by adding +0.38%. While the benchmark S&P 500 was able to eke out a tiny gain of +0.11%, it still down for the month by a fraction of a percent.

Wall Street is still in limbo trying to figure out what to make of the Republican’s failure to pass a health care bill and if there could be more fallout in regards to Trump’s agenda of tax reform and massive infrastructure plan. While no one has an answer yet, I believe that these plans will not come of fruition until 2018 at best and at reduced numbers. If that proves correct, the markets will have to deal with the fact that they again may have gotten ahead of themselves. I wonder when that reality will sink in.

  1. ETFs in the Spotlight (updated for 2017)

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified and sector ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Saturday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

The below table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

For hundreds of ETF choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.

Year to date, here’s how the 2017 candidates have fared so far:

Again, the %M/A column above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines, while the trailing sell stops are being tracked in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.

  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) inched higher despite the major indexes ending mixed.

Here’s how we closed 3/29/2017:

Domestic TTI: +2.57% (last close +2.44%)—Buy signal effective 4/4/2016

International TTI: +5.90% (last close +5.73%)—Buy signal effective 7/19/2016

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as my advisory clients, own some of the ETFs listed in the above table. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.

About Ulli Niemann

Ulli Niemann is the publisher of "The ETF Bully" and is a Registered Investment Advisor. Learn more
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