ETF Tracker Newsletter For February 3, 2017

ETF Tracker StatSheet

When Bad News Is Good News

[Chart courtesy of]

  1. Moving the Markets

Equities started the day solidly above the unchanged line and went up from there breaking out of its narrow sideways pattern, but the gains for the week were slim with the S&P 500 adding only a meager 2 points.

The widely anticipated non-farm payroll number of 227k jobs gained was higher than expected. Interestingly, not only did full-time jobs soar by 457k; part-time jobs tumbled by 490k, the biggest monthly drop since the middle of last year.

The other surprising positive aspect was that job growth, contrary to the past, was spread evenly across many sectors and not just limited to the minimum wage variety. Here are some of the numbers:

Retail: +46,000

Construction: +36,000

Financial: +32,000

Professional/technical: +23,000

Food services: +30,000

Health care: +18,000

These were certainly good and broad gains for a change. The fly in the ointment, also known as “when bad news is good news,” was the fact that average hourly earnings growth slowed down to its lowest number since last August. And this “bad news” is what fired up the stock market and send the dollar lower, as it means that the Fed may not hike rates as much as was feared.

  1. ETFs in the Spotlight (updated for 2017)

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified and sector ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Saturday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

The below table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

For hundreds of ETF choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.

Year to date, here’s how the 2017 candidates have fared so far:

Again, the %M/A column above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines, while the trailing sell stops are being tracked in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.

  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) picked up momentum as a result of today’s positive jobs report.

Here’s how we closed 2/3/2017:

Domestic TTI: +2.04% (last close +1.84%)—Buy signal effective 4/4/2016

International TTI: +4.99% (last close +4.63%)—Buy signal effective 7/19/2016

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as my advisory clients, own some of the ETFs listed in the above table. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.



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About Ulli Niemann

Ulli Niemann is the publisher of “The ETF Bully” and is a Registered Investment Advisor. Learn more

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