Trump Pump Hits A Speed Bump


[Chart courtesy of]

  1. Moving the Markets

The smooth three week post-election ride of the major indexes hit a speed bump today with equities notching their worst performance in almost a month. However, that’s sounds worse than it actually was as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq gave back only around 0.5%, which is hardly earth shaking.

The main culprits for the pullback were the consumer discretionary and financial sectors, which have been among the best performers since the election; gold bucked the trend and gained the most in a month (+1.30%). The US dollar, which had been on a tear ever since bond yields spiked, had its biggest drop in a month.

Oil rallied and ended higher but not before giving back half of its gains after the OPEC session ended as usual in no certifiable agreement. This stock market rally may not be all it’s cracked up to be as volume was notably absent as ZH reports. The chart below clearly shows that equity trading volume collapsed while bond trading volume exploded to five year highs:


This is not what you would want to see in a sustainable bull market scenario. For sure, you want to see increasing equity volume as a sign that there is conviction behind this rally.

  1. ETFs in the Spotlight

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Monday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

Here are the 10 candidates:


The above table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

For hundreds of ETF choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.

Year to date, here’s how the above candidates have fared so far:


Again, the first table above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines (%M/A), while the second one tracks their trailing sell stops in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.

  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) slipped as the major indexes pulled back.

Here’s how we closed 11/28/2016:

Domestic TTI: +0.91% (last close +1.12%)—Buy signal effective 4/4/2016

International TTI: +1.57% (last close +2.28%)—Buy signal effective 7/19/2016

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as my advisory clients, own some of the ETFs listed in the above table. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.

About Ulli Niemann

Ulli Niemann is the publisher of "The ETF Bully" and is a Registered Investment Advisor. Learn more
This entry was posted in Market Commentary and tagged , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Comments are closed.