ETF Tracker Newsletter For November 4, 2016

ETF Tracker StatSheet



Market Commentary

Major Indexes Post 9-Day Losing Streak; Domestic TTI Remains A Tad Below The Line


[Chart courtesy of]

  1. Moving the Markets

The markets meandered above the unchanged line for most of the day, giving the illusion of a rebound, but weakness set in towards the end of the session, and the indexes closed lower for the 9th day in a row. That is a dubious streak that has not happened since late 1980.

On the opposite end, the volatility index (VIX) closed higher for the 9th day in a row, which is an all-time record and means that Wall Street traders are hedging their long positions to protect against a downside surprise.

October payrolls missed and rose by 161k vs. 173k expected; however, September’s print of 156k was revised upward to 191k while the August numbers were also changed from 167k to 176k, an overall gain of 44k more than originally reported.

Still, the main focus was on the upcoming elections and the continued barrage of embarrassing emails being released by Wiki-Leaks. There is more to come this weekend and if reports are correct, the mother of all emails is still forthcoming.

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) slipped again with the Domestic one just barely having gone negative. See section 3 below for details.

  1. ETFs in the Spotlight

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Monday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

Here are the 10 candidates:


The above table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

For hundreds of ETF choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.

Year to date, here’s how the above candidates have fared so far:


Again, the first table above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines (%M/A), while the second one tracks their trailing sell stops in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.

  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Both of our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) slipped again, although by only the tiniest margin, as you can see below. It sure feels like the equity market is sending a warning signal of more downside action to come.

As I posted yesterday, and my viewpoint has not changed, if the indexes continue their downward path on Monday at the tune of around -0.5% for the S&P 500, I will take that as bearish confirmation that our Domestic TTI is correct and liquidate our positions.

Here’s how we closed 11/4/2016:

Domestic TTI: -0.14% (last Friday +0.77%)—Buy signal effective 4/4/2016

International TTI: +0.50% (last Friday +2.64%)—Buy signal effective 7/19/2016

Have a great weekend.


Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as my advisory clients, own some of the ETFs listed in the above table. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.



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About Ulli Niemann

Ulli Niemann is the publisher of "The ETF Bully" and is a Registered Investment Advisor. Learn more
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