A Failed Rally


[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

An early rally attempt failed with the major indexes slowly but surely retreating and ending just about unchanged. Anxiety prevailed as Wall Street awaits Wednesday’s key Federal Reserve decision on interest rates. To me, it’s a foregone conclusion that the Fed, for a variety of reasons, such as consistently weakening economic data points and obvious support for the incumbent party, will not raise rates.

Of course, the Fed could always go against expectations and hike for the first time in 2016, but I think that their memories of the last episode, when rates were raised in December of 2015—and its bearish effect on the markets—remain vividly present.

2. ETFs in the Spotlight

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Monday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

Here are the 10 candidates:


The above table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

For hundreds of ETF choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.

Year to date, here’s how the above candidates have fared so far:


Again, the first table above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines (%M/A), while the second one tracks their trailing sell stops in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.

3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) were mixed again with the Domestic one treading water while the International one gained a bit.

Here’s how we closed 9/19/2016:

Domestic TTI: +2.02% (last close +2.03%)—Buy signal effective 4/4/2016

International TTI: +3.63% (last close +3.02%)—Buy signal effective 7/19/2016

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as my advisory clients, own some of the ETFs listed in the above table. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.

About Ulli Niemann

Ulli Niemann is the publisher of "The ETF Bully" and is a Registered Investment Advisor. Learn more
This entry was posted in Market Commentary and tagged , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Comments are closed.