ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For March 18, 2016

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet



Market Commentary


Fri pic 

[Chart courtesy of]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks jumped Friday as Wall Street continued its recent rally with the Dow rising for a sixth straight day as it pushed further into positive territory for the year. The rally also boosted the S&P 500 back into the black for 2016 after briefly turning positive Thursday.

An improvement in oil prices has helped boost financial markets as benchmark U.S. crude jumped above $41 in early trading before pulling back. West Texas intermediate was trading flat at $40.20 a barrel after closing Thursday above $40 for the first time since early December. Oil is now up more than 50% since plunging to a 13-year low of $26.21 on Feb. 11.

Of course, the main driver for this week’s continuation to the upside has been the Fed’s decision not to normalize rates at this time but chose instead to cave in to Wall Street’s desire of an accommodating policy. To my way of thinking this will put the Fed into a tight corner when, not if, the next financial crisis develops and a lowering of rates, such as in 2008, will no longer be a rescue option. If your thinking is that these elevated market levels in no way represent underlying economic fundamentals, you are absolutely correct.

Be that as it may, we’re slowly inching towards a new potential Domestic Buy signal. You can review the exact numbers in section 3 below.

2. ETFs in the Spotlight

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Monday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

Here are the 10 candidates:


The above table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

For hundreds of ETF/Mutual fund choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.

Year to date, here’s how the above candidates have fared so far:


Again, the first table above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines (%M/A), while the second one tracks their trailing sell stops in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.

3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) closed above its long-term trend line for the 3rd day in a row. Despite this improvement, we will need to see more staying power along with a break of the +1% level in order for me to issue a new Buy signal.

Here’s how we ended this week:

Domestic TTI: +0.60% (last Friday -0.20%)—Sell signal effective 11/13/2015

International TTI: -2.67% (last Friday -3.64%)—Sell signal effective 8/21/2015

Have a great weekend.


Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as advisory clients of mine, own some of these listed ETFs. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.



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About Ulli Niemann

Ulli Niemann is the publisher of "The ETF Bully" and is a Registered Investment Advisor. Learn more
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