ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For November 20, 2015

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet




Market Commentary


Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of]

1. Moving the Markets

For sure it’s a nutty market. Of course, MSM headlines only boast about the S&P posting its largest weekly gain in a nearly a year; it’s long forgotten that it lost -3.63% the prior week, its worst in some 4 years with the net gain being a negative 10 points.

Helping this week’s recovery were some strong earnings and comments from the usual array of Fed officials opining that “the path of interest rate increases is likely to be gradual,” supporting hopes that if an increase occurs in December, the markets won’t be startled.

Of course, just because the Fed is talking about an increase, it’s far from certain that it will actually happen. My viewpoint is that economic data sure don’t show the strength required to support a raise in rates. Nevertheless, the markets are nearing the upper range of the sideways pattern, but we’ll have to wait and see if a clear breakout occurs in order for us to commit to equities again. Please see section 3 for important details.

8 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight ended higher on the day as Consumer Discretionaries (XLY) took the lead with +1.20%. On the downside, Consumer Staples (XLP) gave back -0.71%.

2. ETFs in the Spotlight

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Monday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

Here are the 10 candidates:


The above table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

For hundreds of ETF/Mutual fund choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.

Year to date, here’s how the above candidates have fared so far:


Again, the first table above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines (%M/A), while the second one tracks their trailing sell stops in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.

3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) improved a tad but still has not reached a point above its trend line that I would consider a “clear piercing followed by some staying power.”

In order to avoid a whip-saw signal, we will wait again for further upside confirmation before making a commitment to domestic equities again.

Here’s how our Domestic TTI bounced along its long-term trend line over the past few weeks:

Bouncing TTI

The last time, I saw this type of non-directional movement was in 2000 as the tech bubble burst.

This week, we ended as follows:

Domestic TTI: +0.42% (last Friday -1.17%)—Sell signal effective 11/13/2015

International TTI: -3.12% (last Friday -5.05%)—Sell signal effective 8/21/2015

Have a great weekend.


Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as advisory clients of mine, own some of these listed ETFs. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.



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About Ulli Niemann

Ulli Niemann is the publisher of "The ETF Bully" and is a Registered Investment Advisor. Learn more
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