ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For October 9, 2015

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet




Market Commentary


Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of]

1. Moving the Markets

The Dow extended its recent rally to six sessions as stocks keep heading higher following the release of minutes of the Fed’s meeting last month that lowered investor expectations for an interest rate hike this year. It was all about the Dow this week as the index posted its best weekly advance since a nearly 660-point, 3.8%-run in early February. The S&P 500 also posted its largest weekly gain of 2015.

U.S.-produced crude was also higher, at one point climbing above the key $50 a barrel level and settling at a close of $49.51 a barrel.

Economic data was fairly light this week, so investors were able to key in on two major releases that included the international trade figures and the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) September meeting minutes. While international trade figures came in as expected, the release of the FOMC meeting minutes struck the market as dovish, implying that the Fed will continue to wait to raise interest rates.

Next week we have a full menu of economic data, which includes small business optimism figures on Tuesday, retail sales on Wednesday, inflation data on Thursday and industrial production and sentiment figures on Friday.

As for big earnings reports coming up next week, we will hear from four of the major financials, with JP Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAML). Analysts say these groups will probably set a much better picture of what the rest of the earnings season can look like. We will also hear from Netflix (NFLX).

Remember going into next week that analysts’ expectations for the Q3 earnings season are low, expecting profits of S&P 500 companies to contract about 4%. But the low bar can potentially be a bullish development, as it makes it easier for companies to top analysts’ ridiculous expectations.

It was a mixed day with 5 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight rallying and 5 of them declining. The leader turned out to be Healthcare (XLV) with +0.46% while on the losing side the Financials (IYF) ended down with -0.48%.

2. ETFs in the Spotlight

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Monday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

Here are the 10 candidates:


The above table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

For hundreds of ETF/Mutual fund choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.

Year to date, here’s how the above candidates have fared so far:


Again, the first table above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines (%M/A), while the second one tracks their trailing sell stops in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.

3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) headed closer to a potential new “Buy” signal but need some more upward momentum to cross into bullish territory.

Here’s how we ended up this week:

Domestic TTI: -0.77% (last Friday -1.90%)—Sell signal effective 8/24/2015

International TTI: -3.34% (last Friday -6.67%)—Sell signal effective 8/21/2015

Until the respective trend lines get clearly broken to the upside, we are staying on the sidelines.

Have a great weekend.


Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as advisory clients of mine, own some of these listed ETFs. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.



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About Ulli Niemann

Ulli Niemann is the publisher of "The ETF Bully" and is a Registered Investment Advisor. Learn more
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