ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, August 17, 2012

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet




Market Commentary

Friday, August 17, 2012


US stocks capped off gains for the sixth week in a row Friday as broad markets maintained the positive momentum after latest reports suggested consumer sentiment improved in August.

The University of Michigan Thomson Reuters consumer sentiment index advanced to 73.6 in August from 72.3 in July, beating projections of a decline. Leading economic indicators climbed 0.4 percent in July, the latest Conference Board report showed.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed 0.5 percent higher for the week, its sixth straight week of gains. Within the Dow, only 13 of the 30 components closed higher as breadth turned negative for the day.

The S&P 500 Index added 0.9 percent for the week, following the Dow with six consecutive up weeks, the longest since Jan 2011. Tech and financials rose the most on the day among its 10 business groups.

Government securities headed for the fourth down week in a row, even though US Treasuries snapped a 4-day long losing streak despite Friday’s consumer confidence number beating analysts’ estimates.

The latest reading follows similar up-trends in jobs, retail sales, industrial production and building permits indicating a slow recovery.

Robust US consumer confidence had a positive effect on the greenback, pushing the dollar up against the euro Friday. However, the single-currency gained against the yen, hitting the highest since June over hopes the EU leaders will save the common currency zone.

German Chancellor Merkel said Berlin remained in tune with the single-currency project that indicated her changed position over backing ECB President Mario Draghi on restarting the peripheral bond purchase program.

European stocks rallied Friday, taking cue from improved US consumer sentiment. Led by the banking sector, the Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 0.6 percent on the day. However, speculation over a possible Greece exit gained momentum after Finnish Foreign Minister Erkki Tuomioja said the eurozone should openly face the possibility of a euro breakup.

In the ETF universe, platinum and palladium ETFs spiked after deadly clashes between workers and police in UK-based Lonmin Plc’s Marikana platinum mines left 34 dead and more than 70 injured.

The ETF Securities Physical Palladium Shares (PALL) surged 4.23 percent while the UBS E-TRACS UBS Long Platinum ETN (PTM) jumped 3.22 percent. The ETF Securities’ Physical Platinum Shares (PPLT) also pushed higher, closing 2.21 percent on the day. Today’s rally was an event-driven reaction to possible supply disruption in future, analysts pointed out.

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) pretty much repeated last week’s trend with the International TTI now having solidly moved into bullish territory. Absent any sharp reversal on Monday, a new ‘Buy’ signal will be generated for that area.

Here’s how we ended the week:

Domestic TTI: +3.05% (last week +3.10%)

International TTI: +2.34% (last week +1.56%)

Have a great week.


Disclosure: No holdings



All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

A note from reader Jim:

Q: Ulli: I saw a question from Larry on August 10 asking how to decide what to buy and you referred him to your 7 model portfolios. When I look at them, I see holds and sells but no buys. Do holds mean that they are at good price points to buy currently?

Thank you for your site.

A: Jim: Well, the models show the dates when we initiated the original positions, the current gain/loss and the time we got stopped out when our trailing sell stops kicked in. The “hold” column refers to those positions that have not been stopped out.

If you view Thursday’s StatSheet, you can see which areas are in a ‘buy’ and which areas are in ‘sell’ mode in accordance with our Trend Tracking indexes. The featured tables are the ones you would select new positions from, if you are so inclined.

Personally, I would not add any volatile equities at these lofty levels, but that decision is strictly a matter of your personal risk tolerance.



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About Ulli Niemann

Ulli Niemann is the publisher of "The ETF Bully" and is a Registered Investment Advisor. Learn more
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