ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet
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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:
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Market Commentary
Friday, April 6, 2012
MARCH PAYROLLS REPORT TRAILS FORECAST; BERNANKE’S JOBS WARNING COMES TRUE
The US economy’s expansion came under threat as hiring by American employers trailed most pessimistic forecasts in March. Employers added 120,000 jobs in March, the fewest in five months, proving the Federal Reserve chairman right who had warned of slower payroll growth last month.
Manufacturing, one of the key drivers of recovery, cooled in March with the ISM reading tumbling to 53.4 from a high of 59.9 in the beginning of 2011. The unemployment rate dropped to 8.2 percent from 8.3 percent in the prior month.
Private payrolls climbed a meager 121,000 in March following the addition of 233,000 jobs in Feb. Manufacturing jobs however, grew by 37,000 after a 31,000 growth, despite the ISM reading tumbling for the month.
Average work week declined to 34.5 hours from 34.6 while average weekly earnings dropped to $806.96 from $807.56.
With today’s report, the Fed is not likely to change the benchmark interest rate, currently hovering around zero percent. However, it’s also unlikely to trigger new asset purchases via quantitative easing when the policy makers meet next on April 24-25.
On the other hand, if the weak trend continues through April and May, a case for added monetary stimulus may/will be made not only during the June FOMC meeting, but would also be loudly supported by Wall Street’s players, who can’t wait to get the punch bowl back.
Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) headed south from last Friday’s position, but both remain deep in bullish territory. Here are this week’s closing numbers:
Domestic TTI: +4.63% (last week +5.10%)
International TTI: +3.76% (last week +5.39%)
Have a great week.
Ulli…
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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK
All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:
http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php
A note from reader Jack:
Q: Ulli: Could you please explain the difference between a ‘buy’ and a ‘selective buy?’ You use these terms in your weekly StatSheet, but I can’t seem to find an explanation.
A: Jack: A ‘buy’ refers to all broadly diversified domestic and international funds/ETFs that are tied into the Domestic and International TTI (Trend Tracking Index) as a guide for making buy/sell decisions.
In the case of Country/Sector ETFs, a TTI does not exist, so ‘buy’ decisions will need to be made once each individual ETF crosses its respective trend line to the upside. Some may do that sooner, thereby generating a buy signal quicker, while others may lag; hence the term ‘selective buy.’
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