ETF/No Load Fund Tracker For Friday, May 13, 2011

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet




Market Commentary

Friday, May 13, 2011


Mixed economic data throughout the week kept the markets bouncing around in a trading range with no clear direction. Compared to last Friday’s close, the S&P 500 ended down 2 points.

Expectations for an expanding economy remain widespread, but a continued slowdown has become a distinct possibility, which would limit any upside growth and certainly will impact equity prices. As to when and how much remains the big unknown.

Consumer prices rose 0.4% in April, which was in line with expectations after an increase of 0.5% in March. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the core rate gained 0.2% and 0.1% respectively.

While the consumer sentiment unexpectedly rose to 71.4 in May, from 69.8 in April, higher food and energy costs seem to put a limit on discretionary spending. Absent any improvement in prices, this too will eventually affect the direction of equities.

Looking across the Atlantic, the Eurozone GDP grew by a better than expected 0.8% in the 1st quarter of 2011. However, concerns about Greece’s unsustainable debt level occupied front page news. More meetings are scheduled to discuss additional options for Greece. To my way of thinking, it’s now just a matter of time that the heretofore avoided term “restructuring” (translation: partial forgiveness of debt) will have to become part of the vocabulary.

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) meandered as well, but more weakness has become apparent in the international arena as the positions relative to the long-term trend lines show:

Domestic TTTI: +4.58% (last week +4.76%)
International TTI: +3.31% (last week +4.72%)

Next week, we’ll be facing an economic calendar that includes Housing Starts, Building Permits, Industrial Production, Initial Claims, Existing Homes Sales and Leading Indicators among others. Any positives might help the major indexes break out of the current sideways pattern.

Despite this week’s bounciness in the market, no trailing sell stops were triggered. Looking at the various holdings, my guess would be that the next one on the chopping block will be energy (VDE), which will definitely head further south should any economic reports showing a slowdown materialize.

I will update any sell stop issues concerning our holdings via a blog post. Stay tuned.

Have a great week.




All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
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A note from reader Gillian:

Q: Ulli: I am feeling particularly dense.

I have been studying your charts – especially the Weekly Stat one.  The top fund on that chart is FXG as of 5/5/11 (Top Dom Funds).  Your table shows YTD 15.5% and info on other financial websites show an YTD return of 10.24 percent.

Just wondering what the difference could be.  Could it be that YTD return from the other sources does not include any other return such as dividend – in this case perhaps .95% yield makes the difference?

Do the percentage columns following the M-Index column illustrate the percentage change based on changes in the momentum number?

As you can see, I am confused.

A: Gillian: You need to read the footnotes when checking returns on sites like Yahoo. They are showing a 10.24% return as well, but the footnote says as of March 31st – hence the difference.

Yes, the momentum numbers following the M-Index are showing the changes in price over the period specified. You may want to read up on the Glossary of terms shown in the pop-up menu above section 1 of the StatSheet:

Yes, the fund’s annual expenses are included in all figures.



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About Ulli Niemann

Ulli Niemann is the publisher of "The ETF Bully" and is a Registered Investment Advisor. Learn more
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