ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet
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Friday, March 25, 2011
MARKETS RECOVER FROM LAST WEEK’S SWOON
What a difference five trading days make. After last week’s swan dive, the major market ETFs did an about face and strung together a 3-day winning streak, which ended up being one of the best weekly performances since last summer, with the S&P 500 adding 2.9%.
It was a nice snap back rally after the markets had tanked the last three out of four weeks.
Lending an assist to the upward move was evidence that the economy grew better in the 4th quarter 2010 than expected. The Commerce Department released its final estimate, which showed an economic expansion of 3.1% as opposed to economists’ estimates of 2.9%.
The fly in the ointment were gloomy consumers as evidenced by the final reading on March consumer sentiment, which showed a drop from 68.2 to 67.5 vs. expectations of 68. Worse yet was the drop from the February reading of 77.5 that went into the history books as the 10th-largest on record.
That is no surprise as consumers are simply feeling strapped as a consequence of rising food and gasoline prices, which have seriously affected their pocket books.
As the stock market finished out a good week, commodities pulled back today but ended up closing higher since last Friday with gold, crude oil and interest rates all rising.
As the markets headed higher, so did our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs), which have moved above their long-term trend lines by the following percentages:
Domestic TTTI: +4.38% (last week +3.55%)
International TTI: +4.47% (last week +2.97%)
Next week, we will be facing more reports on home sales, consumer confidence, initial claims and the all important unemployment rate on Friday, just to name a few. Throw in a few global uncertainties, and you have a recipe that could move markets in either direction.
However, this week was a positive one, and we should be happy with that given how bleak things looked earlier in March after the disasters in Japan.
Have a great week.
READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK
All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
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A note from reader John:
Q: Ulli: I still have a question in my mind.
Buying ETF’s…The DD%’s are 0:00% (blue), they are OK to buy? If negative (red), do not buy at this time? Am I on the right track here? Thanks in advance.
A: John: The DD% figure of 0.00% merely says that this ETF/fund has made a new high during this cycle. It means it’s outperforming those that have negative numbers. On the other hand, when markets correct, these ETFs tend to correct faster as well.
Personally, I use the M-Index rankings first, but I do drop down a few notches from the top to reduce volatility. If I then still find a fund/ETF that has a DD% of close to 0.00%, I select that one. However, it all depends on your risk tolerance.
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