Tough Overhead Resistance

It’s been almost a month that the S&P; 500 has hovered around the 1,100 mark, which has become a major point of resistance. Any attempts to clearly pierce through this level have been rebuffed so far.

This resistance has coincided with our Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) finally closing its gaps as I alluded to in “How High Can We Go?”

Here’s an updated chart of the TTI:

As you can see, the exhaustion gaps, indentified by the large red arrows on the left, have been closed. This means the rebound in prices, since the lows in March 09, has passed the starting point of the first gap just above the upper red arrow.

Technically speaking, this could mean that major trend reversal is in the making. While these patterns are not always a reliable timing indicator, they have increased the odds that directional changes are a distinct possibility.

Recent market activity has confirmed the difficulty of the major averages to clearly pierce these levels. Should upward momentum resume, and this current glass ceiling gets shattered, we may be off to the races again with higher prices ahead.

Right now, I would not hold my breath for that to happen given how far the market has come and the still weak economic fundamentals. I am watching all sell stops closely and will execute them as they get triggered. I suggest you do the same.

About Ulli Niemann

Ulli Niemann is the publisher of "The ETF Bully" and is a Registered Investment Advisor. Learn more
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