Shifting Back To Neutral

If you find the constant lack of direction and follow through that the market has been throwing at us maddening, you’re not alone. Yesterday’s broad retreat was a reminder again how fickle this market has become and that at any given time any event can derail the upward momentum.

While we were within striking distance of a new domestic buy signal, our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) have now again retreated into the neutral zone, which is an area defined as a range of -1.50% below its long-term trend line to +1.50% above it.

Yesterday’s sharp pull back has positioned our TTIs as follows:

Domestic TTI: +0.96%
International TTI: -2.57%

Internationally, nothing has changed since our sell signal on 11/13/07.

Domestically, as you know from my weekly updates, we have been waiting for a new buy signal, which almost, but not quite, materialized several times over the past few weeks.

We’re now back to the drawing board waiting for this uptrend to show some legs before making any further commitments. On average, we’re about 70% in cash with the balance being invested in those areas that have generated good upward momentum independently of the domestic U.S. market.

About Ulli Niemann

Ulli Niemann is the publisher of "The ETF Bully" and is a Registered Investment Advisor. Learn more
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