A New Bull Market?

With yesterday’s higher close, our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) are now situated in respect to their long-term trend lines as follows:

Domestic TTI: +0.62%
International TTI: -4.77%

As you can see, yesterday’s market activity pushed the domestic TTI slightly above its trend line. Since our Sell on 1/18/08, we’ve had this very same scenario on several occasions as prices bounced slightly above and below this divider between bull and bear territory.

To avoid another head fake, or whip-saw, I will not re-invest in the domestic market until I see continuous upward momentum and some staying power above the line. The markets have been rallying in the face of questionable economic news (high PPI) and may have very well priced in a far worse scenario than we’re currently seeing. Be that as it may, I am willing to give up some potential profit in order to increase my odds by having this domestic market demonstrate some staying power first before I put new money on the table.

However, in the meantime, there are several other bull markets going on in a variety of sector funds. Please refer to my latest StatSheet for details. We have increased our exposure in some of those areas that are supported by strong momentum figures.

About Ulli Niemann

Ulli Niemann is the publisher of "The ETF Bully" and is a Registered Investment Advisor. Learn more
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