ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 07/29/2016

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 538 ETFs, of which currently 473 (last week 506) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher. Volume figures can change in a hurry, so be sure to check first before investing.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of 98 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 86 ETFs (last week 81) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 736 (last week 730) above the line and 44 below it out of the 780 that I follow.

Take a look:

  1. ETF Master Cutline Report
  2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report
  3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For July 29, 2016

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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http://www.theetfbully.com/2016/07/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-07282016/

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Market Commentary

DOW FELL EVERY DAY THIS WEEK; GDP SHOCKER

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Can the GDP numbers get any worse? Today’s announcement was a real shocker as second quarter GDP clocked in at a miserable 1.0% against expectations of 2.6%. And, to add insult to injury, first quarter GDP was revised from an already poor 1.1% to just 0.8%. I can’t wait for next month’s revision.

On top of that, the economic numbers over the past few days showed nothing but negatives confirming that we are at best in “standstill” mode. Of course, in this new environment, a slowing economy, possibly on its way to a negative GDP within the next couple quarters or so, is a good thing for the stock market as it means that any feared Fed rate hikes in the near future are off the table for sure.

It confirms that we can count on more accommodation by the Fed, meaning stimulus and a reckless increase in debt, which will very likely continue to push equities further into bubble territory. I posted on several occasions, that artificial levitation of prices only goes so far before the entire house of cards comes crashing down. And when it does, you better have an exit strategy, because the longer stock prices and fundamentals disconnect, the worse the adjustment to fair value will be.

Next week, there are still a number of large companies set to report earnings, which could push the markets in either direction. Stocks remain quite reactionary to oil prices and the presidential campaign is tightening up and could have more and more impact on market movement.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 07/28/2016

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, July 28, 2016

TOC072116

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

Important announcement: Please note that I am in process of expanding the ETF portion of the StatSheet to bring you a wider variety of High Volume ETFs. I will be discontinuing the mutual fund portion, which I have a featured as a courtesy only for many years. Times are changing and ETFs are the product of the future. To further assist those having to invest in mutual funds with their 401ks, I will post access to a “mutual fund to ETF converter.” This change is scheduled to take effect around the end of July.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 4/4/2016

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in above chart) remains above its long term trend line (red) by +3.04% after having generated a new Domestic Buy signal effective 4/4/2016 as posted.

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Dow Falls Four Days Straight

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks pulled back a tad on mixed corporate earnings and falling oil prices as the Dow slipped for a fourth straight day.

Oil prices continue to fall with no obvious reason as the price of West Texas Intermediate Oil, the U.S. benchmark, was down 1.96% to close at $41.10 a barrel. Oil prices are down for a sixth straight day and have fallen nearly 8% this summer.

On the earnings front, social-networking giant Facebook (FB) posted 59% quarterly revenue growth in a strong performance that drove shares up 1.8%. But a disappointing Ford Motor (F) earnings report dampened the mood as the Dearborn, Mich.-based automaker’s stock dropped 9.6% to $12.52. The company’s disappointing earnings report contrasted with a strong performance by General Motors (GM) earlier this week.

In other news, it seems that Dollar General (DG) is taking advantage of Walmart’s (WMT) castoffs to grow its massive fleet of stores. The company said Wednesday that it bought 41 former Walmart Express stores and plans to relocate 40 existing Dollar General stores (plus open one new store) to the new sites by October. Dollar shops have been a growing threat to big-box stores and grocers alike since winning over recession-strapped customers and starting to sell more food and perishables, the kinds of goods that drive frequent trips.

More earnings numbers are on deck for tomorrow, as well as key economic data on how our economy fared for the second quarter.

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Mixed Signals

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks ended mixed after the Federal Reserve’s afternoon decision to leave interest rates unchanged was no surprise to investors. The Fed, which hiked rates off 0% back in December for the first time in nearly a decade, has kept rates steady this year, citing uncertainty abroad, the aftermath of the ‘Brexit’ vote and an early-year slowdown in the U.S. Many presume that the next rate hike will not take place until early 2017.

What that really tells you is that economic conditions are in such bad shape and continually worsening that even a tiny 1/8% raise in rates might have a severely negative effect on the financial markets and most likely would pull them off their lofty levels. As I repeatedly posted, the Fed’s goal is to keep major indexes elevated in order to keep the recovery illusion alive.

In earnings news, the big winner of the day was Apple (AAPL), which saw its shares surge about  7% to a three-month high after iPhone sales (which fell 15%) still came in above estimates at 40.4 million units. The maker of the iPhone, which has lost its luster with investors after posting its first-ever iPhone sales drop in Q1, also forecast better sales in the current quarter.

In other earnings news, Dow component Boeing (BA) saw its shares rise 0.8% after it topped profit estimates and reaffirmed its revenue guidance for the rest of the year. Coca-Cola (KO) shares fell 3.3% on a sales miss and a downgrade of its outlook.

Eyes remain focused this week for further earnings reports and big economic data numbers due Friday.

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Bulls Are On Hold; Waiting For The Fed

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

U.S. stocks ended mixed Tuesday as investors digested a mixed batch of earnings reports and as the Federal Reserve kicked off a two-day meeting on interest rates. As you can see in the above S&P chart, stocks dropped sharply during mid-day about 0.75%, but were pushed back up since, with the Fed in charge of market direction, market pullbacks of more than 0.3% appear to be no longer “allowed” in this “new” trading environment…

In earnings news, McDonald’s (MCD) contributed to the Dow’s decline today after the fast-food giant reported earnings that missed Wall Street estimates and posted disappointing sales numbers.  Shares fell 4.4%.  Shares of Verizon (VZ) fell 1.9% after the telecomm company said a worker strike in the spring hurt its second-quarter results.  United Technologies (UTX) raised its outook for the year and reported earnings and revenue that beat estimates.  Shares were up 2.7%.  Dupont (DD) shares rose 0.7% after cost-cutting helped boost profits that beat expectations for the chemical company.

In auto news today, we finally heard the verdict today regarding Volkswagen’s environmental scandal. Volkswagen Group will pay up to $14.7 billion in a sweeping settlement that includes compensation for owners for its polluting diesel-powered cars, environmental mitigation and funds to promote zero-emissions cars. Owners of the 475,000 Volkswagen vehicles with 2-liter diesels covered under the settlement will receive payments ranging from $5,100 to $10,000 if they agree to the settlement.

More earnings reports are due this week from both S&P 500 and Dow companies, as well as the Friday economics report, but on deck for tomorrow is the widely anticipated outcome of the Fed meeting on interest rates. My guess is “no change.”

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