Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 10/23/2014

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, October 23, 2014


If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.




Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI), broke through its long-term trend line generating a “Sell” for this arena effective 10/14/2014, which was followed by a violent break back above the line on 10/22/14 generating a new “Buy.” It was a classic whipsaw signal, and you can read more on my blog as to the events.

As of today, our TTI (green line in above chart) is positioned above its long term trend line (red) by +1.35% keeping us in the market with newly established positions.


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Markets Back On Top After Strong Earnings Reports Continue

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Equities got a major boost today from a bunch of strong earnings reports from companies such as Caterpillar (CAT) and General Motors (GM). The S&P 500 rose 1.24%, the Nasdaq gained 1.6% and the Dow ended up 1.32%.

Airline stocks fared well today as both Southwest (LUV) and United Continental (UAL) came out with earnings reports that topped analyst expectations. With 177 of the S&P 500 companies having posted third-quarter results, 69.5% have beaten expectations, better than the 67% beat rate over the past four quarters, and higher than the 20-year average of 63%.

As a counter to the upbeat earnings trend, Amazon (AMZN) had warned that it would lose bundles of cash in the third quarter, and it didn’t disappoint. The company said it had a net loss of $437 million for the quarter, compared with $41 million in the year-ago quarter. Shares of Amazon are down more than 23% on the year. Obviously the Fire phone was a flop; however, the company is bullish on their Kindle tablets. The company has a new line of tablets that have been better received, and it is looking to make a bigger splash with consumers by opening pop-up stores in San Francisco and Sacramento.

More good news came from overseas as analysts noted that the economy in Europe may be looking up. Europe benchmarks started the day in the red and closed higher. The DAX of Germany gained 1.2%. Major Asia indexes all lost, the Nikkei of Japan off 0.4%.

9 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight gained while one lost. Our latest Buy signal, effective yesterday, allowed us to participate in today’s rebound, which affected our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) positively, as you can see in section 3 below.


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Markets Break 4-Day Winning Streak

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Markets fell from their 4-day winning streak today as the S&P 500 gave back 0.74%, the Dow dropped 0.93% and the Nasdaq declined 0.83%. The Dow is now officially back in the red for the year. Despite the slide today, the market remains in better shape than it was a week earlier, when a day of tumultuous trading briefly had the Dow down 460 points for the day and the S&P in the red for 2014 before a late-day recovery erased much of the losses.

In earnings reports, Yahoo (YHOO) posted earnings late yesterday that topped estimates. Shares rose more than 4.5% today. Apple (AAPL) set a new $104.11 intraday high and shares continue to rise as strong iPhone sales linger on. Wall Street analysts remain very bullish on the stock, holding out an 18-month price target of $115.52. On the flip side, shares of AT&T fell 2% today after lowering their revenue outlook for the year and posting earnings that missed analyst estimates.

Markets fared well in Europe today though, with the FTSE 100, DAX and CAC 40 all gaining. Investors remain optimistic that the European Central Bank may inject stimulus into the region to counter slowing growth.

Let’s not forget that after the severe slide last week, the markets received 2 assists in form of a Fed official jawboning about a change of heart in regards to the ending of QE while yesterday the rumor of potential ECB bond buying kicked the rally into high gear.

What that means is that we’re floating on hot air and hype; nevertheless, the markets opened to the upside this morning confirming our latest domestic Buy signal. See section 3 below for more details.


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Another Rumor Powers The Markets; Domestic TTI Back In Bullish Territory

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

The markets continued to rally Tuesday after a big Q3 earnings report from Apple (AAPL) after the closing bell yesterday. The S&P 500 gained 1.94%, the Dow rose 1.31% and the Nasdaq led the pack rising 2.38%.

Earnings reports from five Dow companies came in mixed this morning before the opening bell. Coca-Cola (KO), McDonald’s (MCD) and Verizon (VZ) fell shy of estimates, while insurance company Travelers (TRV) and United Technologies (UTX) beat forecasts.

Markets got an added huge assist in Europe when there was talk of the ECB considering buying corporate bonds. Germany’s DAX stock index was up 1.9%; shares were up 2.3% on the CAC 40 in Paris and 1.7% higher on the FTSE 100 in London. Things weren’t as peachy in East Asia. Markets were down today after China reported its weakest economic growth in five years.

It seems the mood on Wall Street is slowly improving as the focus shifts to corporate fundamentals such as earnings and economic data, which continue to brighten.

For more details on how today’s rally affected our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs), please see section 3 below.


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Stocks Continue To Rally From Friday; No New Ebola Cases Over The Weekend

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

U.S. markets are coming off another wild week of trading, where the Dow saw its most volatile period since 2011. The S&P 500 ended the day up 0.91%, the Dow gained 0.12% after a late-day rally and the Nasdaq posted a 1.35% gain. Investors have been nervous over the spread of Ebola of recent; however, there was a sigh of relief over the weekend when fears surrounding the virus lessened as no new cases were reported.

Over the past three weeks investors have been hoping for some solid earnings reports to act as a stabilizing agent to all of the volatility in the markets. Heading into Monday, 64% of the 81 companies that have reported earnings have topped expectations, which is above the long-term average of 63%, according to Thomson Reuters.

We saw great numbers from Chipotle (CMG) that topped expectations today, but the stars didn’t align for IBM however. The company came out with a weak quarterly earnings report that missed expectations by a wide margin. Shares fell more than 7% to $168.81 and were a big drag on the Dow. This week, 128 S&P 500 companies and 12 Dow names report earnings.

With the markets having bounced back for 2 days in a row, our Domestic TTI has inched back above its long-term trend line by a fraction; however, it’s not enough to change our current investment stance. See section 3 for more details.

Technically speaking, the S&P 500 is bouncing against overhead resistance at 1,905 while also attempting to conquer its widely followed 200 day MA. For some detailed analysis please read “How far will the stock market rebound go?”


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ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 10/17/2014

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 410 ETFs, of which currently 105 (last week 121) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 97 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 16 ETFs (last week 17) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 111 (last week 155) above the line and 739 below it out of the 850 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report     

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.

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