Gold Glimmers, Stocks Stumble: Trade Tensions Take Center Stage

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Markets stumbled out of the gate today, weighed down by the same old story—trade uncertainty.

Despite Treasury Secretary Bessent teasing some upcoming announcements within the next 48 hours, he left out key details like which countries might be involved. That didn’t do much to calm nerves, especially with Trump’s 90-day tariff pause set to expire this week.

Adding fuel to the fire, Trump floated the idea of slapping an extra 10% tariff on countries aligned with BRICS, calling them out for “Anti-American policies.” That didn’t sit well with traders.

By the end of the day, the market stayed underwater. Gold was the lone bright spot, bouncing back midday to finish slightly in the green.

On the equity side, Small Caps took the biggest hit, while the S&P 500 held up a bit better. Mega Caps gave back a good chunk of Thursday’s gains, and Tesla slid after Elon Musk announced plans to launch a new political party.

Bond yields ticked higher, giving the dollar a boost. Gold managed to hold its ground, and Bitcoin followed a similar path—starting strong but fading by the close.

Historically, July has averaged a +1.67% return going all the way back to 1928. So, the big question is: Will history repeat itself this time around?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 07/03/2025

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, July 3, 2025

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +5.49% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our new holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Better Jobs Data, No Rate Cuts? Markets Still Cheer

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The markets kicked off the day with a bang, rallying right out of the gate after this morning’s jobs report came in stronger than expected—quite the turnaround from yesterday’s weak ADP numbers.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 147,000, beating forecasts of 110,000. On top of that, May’s numbers were revised upward to 144,000. The unemployment rate also dipped to 4.1%, defying expectations of a rise to 4.3%.

That solid labor data sent bond yields jumping and cooled hopes for a rate cut anytime soon. Right now, futures traders are putting the odds at about 93% that the Fed will keep rates steady at their next meeting.

Adding to the mix, the approval of the so-called “Big Beautiful Bill,” along with strong factory orders and upbeat service sector data, is painting a picture of an economy that’s still expanding. Translation? Rate cuts are likely off the table for now.

Still, traders seemed to like what they saw. The major indexes posted strong gains for this holiday-shortened week, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both closing at record highs—helped along by a weeklong short squeeze.

Bond yields surged, the dollar slipped a bit, and gold managed to close higher for the week despite a pullback today. Precious metals overall are still riding a wave of bullish sentiment.

Bitcoin made a run at its all-time high but couldn’t quite stick the landing, fading into the close.

So, with seasonals pointing to more upside, the big question is: Will stocks keep climbing as we head deeper into summer?

Happy 4th of July!

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Bitcoin Booms, Metals Surge, And The Dow Just Can’t Keep Up

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The day started off with the Dow dragging its feet while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq made modest gains.

What gave the market a bit of a boost? President Trump announced a finalized trade deal with Vietnam, which helped lift sentiment—at least for a moment.

But then came the ADP private payroll report, and it wasn’t pretty. The private sector lost 33,000 jobs last month—marking the first decline since March 2023. Analysts were expecting a gain of 100,000. Ouch.

Still, in classic Wall Street fashion, bad news turned into good news. With the Macro Data Surprise Index also taking a dive, traders started betting that the Fed might ease up on interest rates. That sparked a short squeeze, and most major indexes (except the Dow) ended the day in the green, with Small Caps leading the charge.

Traders also kept an eye on Trump’s tax-and-spending bill, which squeaked through the Senate and now heads back to the House. Some GOP holdouts are still making noise, so it’s not a done deal yet.

Elsewhere, bond yields dipped early but climbed later in the day. The dollar stayed flat.

Precious metals like gold, silver, platinum, and palladium all rallied, and copper jumped 2.12%. Not to be left out, Bitcoin surged toward its all-time high, fueled by strong ETF inflows and growing bullish sentiment.

And let’s not forget the big picture—global liquidity is still pointing to higher prices ahead.

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Tech Slips, Dow Lifts: A Choppy Start To July

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The first trading day of July came in with mixed vibes. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq stumbled out of the gate, while the Dow decided to do its own thing and posted some early gains.

Tesla took a 4% hit after former President Trump stirred the pot on social media, suggesting that DOGE should investigate the government subsidies Elon Musk’s companies have received. This seemed like a clapback after Musk called Trump’s latest “big, beautiful bill” completely insane and destructive. So yeah, the drama continues.

Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke at a European banking forum in Portugal, saying the Fed probably would’ve cut rates again by now—if it weren’t for those pesky tariffs. He didn’t offer any timeline, just the usual “we’ll see what the data says” line. Not exactly the clarity markets were hoping for.

The weakness in the S&P and Nasdaq stuck around through the close, and Trump’s comment about not extending the tariff pause past July 9th didn’t help. Even a big short-squeeze couldn’t lift the Mag7 tech giants, though it did give the broader market a bit of a boost.

Bond yields climbed, rate cut hopes dipped, and both hard and soft economic data came in weak. The dollar had a wild ride but ended flat. Gold bounced back nicely, reclaiming its 50-day moving average after yesterday’s quarter-end drop. Bitcoin slipped alongside tech but found support around $106K.

So, with a shaky start to July, the big question is: Will the market stick to its usual seasonal script and rally over the next couple of weeks—or is this year going to break the pattern?

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June Ends On A High Note As Markets Shake Off Trade Jitters

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks kicked off the last day of June on a positive note, riding the wave of last week’s bullish momentum.

That upward push got an extra boost when Canada backed off its digital services tax to smooth over trade talks with the U.S.—a quick reversal after President Trump abruptly ended discussions just three days earlier. So, that mini trade war? It lasted all of 72 hours.

Investors are still waiting to see if any real trade deals materialize before the July 9 deadline, when Trump’s 90-day tariff pause runs out. Secretary Bessent hinted that while some countries are negotiating “in good faith,” the U.S. won’t hesitate to snap back to earlier tariff levels if talks stall. No pressure, right?

Overall, June turned into a recovery month. Stocks, bonds, Bitcoin, and crude oil all moved higher, while the dollar and U.S. macro data slipped—ironically, that weaker data helped fuel hopes for rate cuts, which gave stocks another lift.

For the year so far, the Nasdaq leads the pack with a +7.6% gain, followed by the S&P 500. Small Caps and Transport stocks didn’t fare as well. But gold? It’s still the top performer, outshining all major equity indexes by a wide margin (+25.9%)

Bond yields wrapped up the quarter mixed, and the dollar just had its worst quarter since late 2022. Gold, after a strong start to the year, has been treading water for the past two months.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin had a stellar quarter, rising every month—even if June’s gains were more modest, it still notched a record monthly close.

So, with June in the books and momentum still alive… will the bulls keep charging, or are the bears just catching their breath?

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